MACD HTF Hardcoded (A/B Presets) + Regimes [CHE] MACD HTF Hardcoded (A/B Presets) + Regimes — Higher-timeframe MACD emulation with acceptance-based regime filter and on-chart diagnostics
Summary
This indicator emulates a higher-timeframe MACD directly on the current chart using two hardcoded preset families and a time-bucket mapping, avoiding cross-timeframe requests. It classifies four MACD regimes and applies an acceptance filter that requires several consecutive bars before a state is considered valid. A small dead-band around zero reduces noise near the axis. An on-chart table reports the active preset, the inferred time bucket, the resolved lengths, and the current regime.
Pine version: v6
Overlay: false
Primary outputs: MACD line, Signal line, Histogram columns, zero line, regime-change alert, info table
Motivation: Why this design?
Cross-timeframe indicators often rely on external timeframe requests, which can introduce repaint paths and added latency. This design provides a deterministic alternative: it maps the current chart’s timeframe to coarse higher-timeframe buckets and uses fixed EMA lengths that approximate those views. The dead-band suppresses flip-flops around zero, and the acceptance counter reduces whipsaw by requiring sustained agreement across bars before acknowledging a regime.
What’s different vs. standard approaches?
Baseline: Classical MACD with user-selected lengths on the same timeframe, or higher-timeframe MACD via cross-timeframe requests.
Architecture differences:
Hardcoded A and B length families with a bucket map derived from the chart timeframe.
No `request.security`; all calculations occur on the current series.
Regime classification from MACD and Histogram sign, gated by an acceptance count and a small zero dead-band.
Diagnostics table for transparency.
Practical effect: The MACD behaves like a slower, higher-timeframe variant without external requests. Regimes switch less often due to the dead-band and acceptance logic, which can improve stability in choppy sessions.
How it works (technical)
The script derives a coarse bucket from the chart timeframe using `timeframe.in_seconds` and maps it to preset-specific EMA lengths. EMAs of the source build MACD and Signal; their difference is the Histogram. Signs of MACD and Histogram define four regimes: strong bull, weak bull, strong bear, and weak bear. A small, user-defined band around zero treats values near the axis as neutral. An acceptance counter checks whether the same regime persisted for a given number of consecutive bars before it is emitted as the filtered regime. A single alert condition fires when the filtered regime changes. The histogram columns change shade based on position relative to zero and whether they are rising or falling. A persistent table object shows preset, bucket tag, resolved lengths, and the filtered regime. No cross-timeframe requests are used, so repaint risk is limited to normal live-bar movement; values stabilize on close.
Parameter Guide
Source — Input series for MACD — Default: Close — Using a smoother source increases stability but adds lag.
Preset — A or B length family — Default: “3,10,16” — Switch to “12,26,9” for the classic family mapped to buckets.
Table Position — Anchor for the info table — Default: Top right — Choose a corner that avoids covering price action.
Table Size — Table text size — Default: Normal — Use small on dense charts, large for presentations.
Dark Mode — Table theme — Default: Enabled — Match your chart background for readability.
Show Table — Toggle diagnostics table — Default: Enabled — Disable for a cleaner pane.
Zero dead-band (epsilon) — Noise gate around zero — Default: Zero — Increase slightly when you see frequent flips near zero.
Acceptance bars (n) — Bars required to confirm a regime — Default: Three — Raise to reduce whipsaw; lower to react faster.
Reading & Interpretation
Histogram columns: Above zero indicates bullish pressure; below zero indicates bearish pressure. Darker shade implies the histogram increased compared with the prior bar; lighter shade implies it decreased.
MACD vs. Signal lines: The spread corresponds to histogram height.
Regimes:
Strong bull: MACD above zero and Histogram above zero.
Weak bull: MACD above zero and Histogram below zero.
Strong bear: MACD below zero and Histogram below zero.
Weak bear: MACD below zero and Histogram above zero.
Table: Inspect active preset, bucket tag, resolved lengths, and the filtered regime number with its description.
Practical Workflows & Combinations
Trend following: Use strong bull to favor long exposure and strong bear to favor short exposure. Use weak states as pullback or transition context. Combine with structure tools such as swing highs and lows or a baseline moving average for confirmation.
Exits and risk: In strong trends, consider exiting partial size on a regime downgrade to a weak state. In choppy sessions, increase the acceptance bars to reduce churn.
Multi-asset / Multi-timeframe: Works on time-based charts across liquid futures, indices, currencies, and large-cap equities. Bucket mapping helps retain a consistent feel when moving from lower to higher timeframes.
Behavior, Constraints & Performance
Repaint/confirmation: No cross-timeframe requests; values can evolve intrabar and settle on close. Alerts follow your TradingView alert timing settings.
Resources: `max_bars_back` is set to five thousand. Very large resolved lengths require sufficient history to seed EMAs; expect a warm-up period on first load or after switching symbols.
Known limits: Dead-band and acceptance can delay recognition at sharp turns. Extremely thin markets or large gaps may still cause brief regime reversals.
Sensible Defaults & Quick Tuning
Start with preset “3,10,16”, dead-band near zero, and acceptance of three bars.
Too many flips near zero: increase the dead-band slightly or raise the acceptance bars.
Too sluggish in clean trends: reduce the acceptance bars by one.
Too sensitive on fast lower timeframes: switch to the “12,26,9” preset family or raise the acceptance bars.
Want less clutter: hide the table and keep the alert.
What this indicator is—and isn’t
This is a visualization and regime layer for MACD using higher-timeframe emulation and stability gates. It is not a complete trading system and does not generate position sizing or risk management. Use it with market structure, execution rules, and protective stops.
Disclaimer
The content provided, including all code and materials, is strictly for educational and informational purposes only. It is not intended as, and should not be interpreted as, financial advice, a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument, or an offer of any financial product or service. All strategies, tools, and examples discussed are provided for illustrative purposes to demonstrate coding techniques and the functionality of Pine Script within a trading context.
Any results from strategies or tools provided are hypothetical, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve high risk, including the potential loss of principal, and may not be suitable for all individuals. Before making any trading decisions, please consult with a qualified financial professional to understand the risks involved.
By using this script, you acknowledge and agree that any trading decisions are made solely at your discretion and risk.
Do not use this indicator on Heikin-Ashi, Renko, Kagi, Point-and-Figure, or Range charts, as these chart types can produce unrealistic results for signal markers and alerts.
Best regards and happy trading
Chervolino
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COT IndexTHE HIDDEN INTELLIGENCE IN FUTURES MARKETS
What if you could see what the smartest players in the futures markets are doing before the crowd catches on? While retail traders chase momentum indicators and moving averages, obsess over Japanese candlestick patterns, and debate whether the RSI should be set to fourteen or twenty-one periods, institutional players leave footprints in the sand through their mandatory reporting to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. These footprints, published weekly in the Commitment of Traders reports, have been hiding in plain sight for decades, available to anyone with an internet connection, yet remarkably few traders understand how to interpret them correctly. The COT Index indicator transforms this raw institutional positioning data into actionable trading signals, bringing Wall Street intelligence to your trading screen without requiring expensive Bloomberg terminals or insider connections.
The uncomfortable truth is this: Most retail traders operate in a binary world. Long or short. Buy or sell. They apply technical analysis to individual positions, constrained by limited capital that forces them to concentrate risk in single directional bets. Meanwhile, institutional traders operate in an entirely different dimension. They manage portfolios dynamically weighted across multiple markets, adjusting exposure based on evolving market conditions, correlation shifts, and risk assessments that retail traders never see. A hedge fund might be simultaneously long gold, short oil, neutral on copper, and overweight agricultural commodities, with position sizes calibrated to volatility and portfolio Greeks. When they increase gold exposure from five percent to eight percent of portfolio allocation, this rebalancing decision reflects sophisticated analysis of opportunity cost, risk parity, and cross-market dynamics that no individual chart pattern can capture.
This portfolio reweighting activity, multiplied across hundreds of institutional participants, manifests in the aggregate positioning data published weekly by the CFTC. The Commitment of Traders report does not show individual trades or strategies. It shows the collective footprint of how actual commercial hedgers and large speculators have allocated their capital across different markets. When mining companies collectively increase forward gold sales to hedge thirty percent more production than last quarter, they are not reacting to a moving average crossover. They are making strategic allocation decisions based on production forecasts, cost structures, and price expectations derived from operational realities invisible to outside observers. This is portfolio management in action, revealed through positioning data rather than price charts.
If you want to understand how institutional capital actually flows, how sophisticated traders genuinely position themselves across market cycles, the COT report provides a rare window into that hidden world. But understand what you are getting into. This is not a tool for scalpers seeking confirmation of the next five-minute move. This is not an oscillator that flashes oversold at market bottoms with convenient precision. COT analysis operates on a timescale measured in weeks and months, revealing positioning shifts that precede major market turns but offer no precision timing. The data arrives three days stale, published only once per week, capturing strategic positioning rather than tactical entries.
If you need instant gratification, if you trade intraday moves, if you demand mechanical signals with ninety percent accuracy, close this document now. COT analysis rewards patience, position sizing discipline, and tolerance for being early. It punishes impatience, overleveraging, and the expectation that any single indicator can substitute for market understanding.
The premise is deceptively simple. Every Tuesday, large traders in futures markets must report their positions to the CFTC. By Friday afternoon, this data becomes public. Academic research spanning three decades has consistently shown that not all market participants are created equal. Some traders consistently profit while others consistently lose. Some anticipate major turning points while others chase trends into exhaustion. Bessembinder and Chan (1992) demonstrated in their seminal study that commercial hedgers, those with actual exposure to the underlying commodity or financial instrument, possess superior forecasting ability compared to speculators. Their research, published in the Journal of Finance, found statistically significant predictive power in commercial positioning, particularly at extreme levels. This finding challenged the efficient market hypothesis and opened the door to a new approach to market analysis based on positioning rather than price alone.
Think about what this means. Every week, the government publishes a report showing you exactly how the most informed market participants are positioned. Not their opinions. Not their predictions. Their actual money at risk. When agricultural producers collectively hold their largest short hedge in five years, they are not making idle speculation. They are locking in prices for crops they will harvest, informed by private knowledge of weather conditions, soil quality, inventory levels, and demand expectations invisible to outside observers. When energy companies aggressively hedge forward production at current prices, they reveal information about expected supply that no analyst report can capture. This is not technical analysis based on past prices. This is not fundamental analysis based on publicly available data. This is behavioral analysis based on how the smartest money is actually positioned, how institutions allocate capital across portfolios, and how those allocation decisions shift as market conditions evolve.
WHY SOME TRADERS KNOW MORE THAN OTHERS
Building on this foundation, Sanders, Boris and Manfredo (2004) conducted extensive research examining the behaviour patterns of different trader categories. Their work, which analyzed over a decade of COT data across multiple commodity markets, revealed a fascinating dynamic that challenges much of what retail traders are taught. Commercial hedgers consistently positioned themselves against market extremes, buying when speculators were most bearish and selling when speculators reached peak bullishness. The contrarian positioning of commercials was not random noise but rather reflected their superior information about supply and demand fundamentals. Meanwhile, large speculators, primarily hedge funds and commodity trading advisors, exhibited strong trend-following behaviour that often amplified market moves beyond fundamental values. Small traders, the retail participants, consistently entered positions late in trends, frequently near turning points, making them reliable contrary indicators.
Wang (2003) extended this research by demonstrating that the predictive power of commercial positioning varies significantly across different commodity sectors. His analysis of agricultural commodities showed particularly strong forecasting ability, with commercial net positions explaining up to fifteen percent of return variance in subsequent weeks. This finding suggests that the informational advantages of hedgers are most pronounced in markets where physical supply and demand fundamentals dominate, as opposed to purely financial markets where information asymmetries are smaller. When a corn farmer hedges six months of expected harvest, that decision incorporates private observations about rainfall patterns, crop health, pest pressure, and local storage capacity that no distant analyst can match. When an oil refinery hedges crude oil purchases and gasoline sales simultaneously, the spread relationships reveal expectations about refining margins that reflect operational realities invisible in public data.
The theoretical mechanism underlying these empirical patterns relates to information asymmetry and different participant motivations. Commercial hedgers engage in futures markets not for speculative profit but to manage business risks. An agricultural producer selling forward six months of expected harvest is not making a bet on price direction but rather locking in revenue to facilitate financial planning and ensure business viability. However, this hedging activity necessarily incorporates private information about expected supply, inventory levels, weather conditions, and demand trends that the hedger observes through their commercial operations (Irwin and Sanders, 2012). When aggregated across many participants, this private information manifests in collective positioning.
Consider a gold mining company deciding how much forward production to hedge. Management must estimate ore grades, recovery rates, production costs, equipment reliability, labor availability, and dozens of other operational variables that determine whether locking in prices at current levels makes business sense. If the industry collectively hedges more aggressively than usual, it suggests either exceptional production expectations or concern about sustaining current price levels or combination of both. Either way, this positioning reveals information unavailable to speculators analyzing price charts and economic data. The hedger sees the physical reality behind the financial abstraction.
Large speculators operate under entirely different incentives and constraints. Commodity Trading Advisors managing billions in assets typically employ systematic, trend-following strategies that respond to price momentum rather than fundamental supply and demand. When crude oil rallies from sixty dollars to seventy dollars per barrel, these systems generate buy signals. As the rally continues to eighty dollars, position sizes increase. The strategy works brilliantly during sustained trends but becomes a liability at reversals. By the time oil reaches ninety dollars, trend-following funds are maximally long, having accumulated positions progressively throughout the rally. At this point, they represent not smart money anticipating further gains but rather crowded money vulnerable to reversal. Sanders, Boris and Manfredo (2004) documented this pattern across multiple energy markets, showing that extreme speculator positioning typically marked late-stage trend exhaustion rather than early-stage trend development.
Small traders, the retail participants who fall below reporting thresholds, display the weakest forecasting ability. Wang (2003) found that small trader positioning exhibited negative correlation with subsequent returns, meaning their aggregate positioning served as a reliable contrary indicator. The explanation combines several factors. Retail traders often lack the capital reserves to weather normal market volatility, leading to premature exits from positions that would eventually prove profitable. They tend to receive information through slower channels, entering trends after mainstream media coverage when institutional participants are preparing to exit. Perhaps most importantly, they trade with emotion, buying into euphoria and selling into panic at precisely the wrong times.
At major turning points, the three groups often position opposite each other with commercials extremely bearish, large speculators extremely bullish, and small traders piling into longs at the last moment. These high-divergence environments frequently precede increased volatility and trend reversals. The insiders with business exposure quietly exit as the momentum traders hit maximum capacity and retail enthusiasm peaks. Within weeks, the reversal begins, and positions unwind in the opposite sequence.
FROM RAW DATA TO ACTIONABLE SIGNALS
The COT Index indicator operationalizes these academic findings into a practical trading tool accessible through TradingView. At its core, the indicator normalizes net positioning data onto a zero to one hundred scale, creating what we call the COT Index. This normalization is critical because absolute position sizes vary dramatically across different futures contracts and over time. A commercial trader holding fifty thousand contracts net long in crude oil might be extremely bullish by historical standards, or it might be quite neutral depending on the context of total market size and historical ranges. Raw position numbers mean nothing without context. The COT Index solves this problem by calculating where current positioning stands relative to its range over a specified lookback period, typically two hundred fifty-two weeks or approximately five years of weekly data.
The mathematical transformation follows the methodology originally popularized by legendary trader Larry Williams, though the underlying concept appears in statistical normalization techniques across many fields. For any given trader category, we calculate the highest and lowest net position values over the lookback period, establishing the historical range for that specific market and trader group. Current positioning is then expressed as a percentage of this range, where zero represents the most bearish positioning ever seen in the lookback window and one hundred represents the most bullish extreme. A reading of fifty indicates positioning exactly in the middle of the historical range, suggesting neither extreme optimism nor pessimism relative to recent history (Williams and Noseworthy, 2009).
This index-based approach allows for meaningful comparison across different markets and time periods, overcoming the scaling problems inherent in analyzing raw position data. A commercial index reading of eighty-five in gold carries the same interpretive meaning as an eighty-five reading in wheat or crude oil, even though the absolute position sizes differ by orders of magnitude. This standardization enables systematic analysis across entire futures portfolios rather than requiring market-specific expertise for each contract.
The lookback period selection involves a fundamental tradeoff between responsiveness and stability. Shorter lookback periods, perhaps one hundred twenty-six weeks or approximately two and a half years, make the index more sensitive to recent positioning changes. However, it also increases noise and produces more false signals. Longer lookback periods, perhaps five hundred weeks or approximately ten years, create smoother readings that filter short-term noise but become slower to recognize regime changes. The indicator settings allow users to adjust this parameter based on their trading timeframe, risk tolerance, and market characteristics.
UNDERSTANDING CFTC DATA STRUCTURES
The indicator supports both Legacy and Disaggregated COT report formats, reflecting the evolution of CFTC reporting standards over decades of market development. Legacy reports categorize market participants into three broad groups: commercial traders (hedgers with underlying business exposure), non-commercial traders (large speculators seeking profit without commercial interest), and non-reportable traders (small speculators below reporting thresholds). Each category brings distinct motivations and information advantages to the market (CFTC, 2020).
The Disaggregated reports, introduced in September 2009 for physical commodity markets, provide finer granularity by splitting participants into five categories (CFTC, 2009). Producer and merchant positions capture those actually producing, processing, or merchandising the physical commodity. Swap dealers represent financial intermediaries facilitating derivative transactions for clients. Managed money includes commodity trading advisors and hedge funds executing systematic or discretionary strategies. Other reportables encompasses diverse participants not fitting the main categories. Small traders remain as the fifth group, representing retail participation.
This enhanced categorization reveals nuances invisible in Legacy reports, particularly distinguishing between different types of institutional capital and their distinct behavioural patterns. The indicator automatically detects which report type is appropriate for each futures contract and adjusts the display accordingly.
Importantly, Disaggregated reports exist only for physical commodity futures. Agricultural commodities like corn, wheat, and soybeans have Disaggregated reports because clear producer, merchant, and swap dealer categories exist. Energy commodities like crude oil and natural gas similarly have well-defined commercial hedger categories. Metals including gold, silver, and copper also receive Disaggregated treatment (CFTC, 2009). However, financial futures such as equity index futures, Treasury bond futures, and currency futures remain available only in Legacy format. The CFTC has indicated no plans to extend Disaggregated reporting to financial futures due to different market structures and participant categories in these instruments (CFTC, 2020).
THE BEHAVIORAL FOUNDATION
Understanding which trader perspective to follow requires appreciation of their distinct trading styles, success rates, and psychological profiles. Commercial hedgers exhibit anticyclical behaviour rooted in their fundamental knowledge and business imperatives. When agricultural producers hedge forward sales during harvest season, they are not speculating on price direction but rather locking in revenue for crops they will harvest. Their business requires converting volatile commodity exposure into predictable cash flows to facilitate planning and ensure survival through difficult periods. Yet their aggregate positioning reveals valuable information because these hedging decisions incorporate private information about supply conditions, inventory levels, weather observations, and demand expectations that hedgers observe through their commercial operations (Bessembinder and Chan, 1992).
Consider a practical example from energy markets. Major oil companies continuously hedge portions of forward production based on price levels, operational costs, and financial planning needs. When crude oil trades at ninety dollars per barrel, they might aggressively hedge the next twelve months of production, locking in prices that provide comfortable profit margins above their extraction costs. This hedging appears as short positioning in COT reports. If oil rallies further to one hundred dollars, they hedge even more aggressively, viewing these prices as exceptional opportunities to secure revenue. Their short positioning grows increasingly extreme. To an outside observer watching only price charts, the rally suggests bullishness. But the commercial positioning reveals that the actual producers of oil find these prices attractive enough to lock in years of sales, suggesting skepticism about sustaining even higher levels. When the eventual reversal occurs and oil declines back to eighty dollars, the commercials who hedged at ninety and one hundred dollars profit while speculators who chased the rally suffer losses.
Large speculators or managed money traders operate under entirely different incentives and constraints. Their systematic, momentum-driven strategies mean they amplify existing trends rather than anticipate reversals. Trend-following systems, the most common approach among large speculators, by definition require confirmation of trend through price momentum before entering positions (Sanders, Boris and Manfredo, 2004). When crude oil rallies from sixty dollars to eighty dollars per barrel over several months, trend-following algorithms generate buy signals based on moving average crossovers, breakouts, and other momentum indicators. As the rally continues, position sizes increase according to the systematic rules.
However, this approach becomes a liability at turning points. By the time oil reaches ninety dollars after a sustained rally, trend-following funds are maximally long, having accumulated positions progressively throughout the move. At this point, their positioning does not predict continued strength. Rather, it often marks late-stage trend exhaustion. The psychological and mechanical explanation is straightforward. Trend followers by definition chase price momentum, entering positions after trends establish rather than anticipating them. Eventually, they become fully invested just as the trend nears completion, leaving no incremental buying power to sustain the rally. When the first signs of reversal appear, systematic stops trigger, creating a cascade of selling that accelerates the downturn.
Small traders consistently display the weakest track record across academic studies. Wang (2003) found that small trader positioning exhibited negative correlation with subsequent returns in his analysis across multiple commodity markets. This result means that whatever small traders collectively do, the opposite typically proves profitable. The explanation for small trader underperformance combines several factors documented in behavioral finance literature. Retail traders often lack the capital reserves to weather normal market volatility, leading to premature exits from positions that would eventually prove profitable. They tend to receive information through slower channels, learning about commodity trends through mainstream media coverage that arrives after institutional participants have already positioned. Perhaps most importantly, retail traders are more susceptible to emotional decision-making, buying into euphoria and selling into panic at precisely the wrong times (Tharp, 2008).
SETTINGS, THRESHOLDS, AND SIGNAL GENERATION
The practical implementation of the COT Index requires understanding several key features and settings that users can adjust to match their trading style, timeframe, and risk tolerance. The lookback period determines the time window for calculating historical ranges. The default setting of two hundred fifty-two bars represents approximately one year on daily charts or five years on weekly charts, balancing responsiveness with stability. Conservative traders seeking only the most extreme, highest-probability signals might extend the lookback to five hundred bars or more. Aggressive traders seeking earlier entry and willing to accept more false positives might reduce it to one hundred twenty-six bars or even less for shorter-term applications.
The bullish and bearish thresholds define signal generation levels. Default settings of eighty and twenty respectively reflect academic research suggesting meaningful information content at these extremes. Readings above eighty indicate positioning in the top quintile of the historical range, representing genuine extremes rather than temporary fluctuations. Conversely, readings below twenty occupy the bottom quintile, indicating unusually bearish positioning (Briese, 2008).
However, traders must recognize that appropriate thresholds vary by market, trader category, and personal risk tolerance. Some futures markets exhibit wider positioning swings than others due to seasonal patterns, volatility characteristics, or participant behavior. Conservative traders seeking high-probability setups with fewer signals might raise thresholds to eighty-five and fifteen. Aggressive traders willing to accept more false positives for earlier entry could lower them to seventy-five and twenty-five.
The key is maintaining meaningful differentiation between bullish, neutral, and bearish zones. The default settings of eighty and twenty create a clear three-zone structure. Readings from zero to twenty represent bearish territory where the selected trader group holds unusually bearish positions. Readings from twenty to eighty represent neutral territory where positioning falls within normal historical ranges. Readings from eighty to one hundred represent bullish territory where the selected trader group holds unusually bullish positions.
The trading perspective selection determines which participant group the indicator follows, fundamentally shaping interpretation and signal meaning. For counter-trend traders seeking reversal opportunities, monitoring commercial positioning makes intuitive sense based on the academic research discussed earlier. When commercials reach extreme bearish readings below twenty, indicating unprecedented short positioning relative to recent history, they are effectively betting against the crowd. Given their informational advantages demonstrated by Bessembinder and Chan (1992), this contrarian stance often precedes major bottoms.
Trend followers might instead monitor large speculator positioning, but with inverted logic compared to commercials. When managed money reaches extreme bullish readings above eighty, the trend may be exhausting rather than accelerating. This seeming paradox reflects their late-cycle participation documented by Sanders, Boris and Manfredo (2004). Sophisticated traders thus use speculator extremes as fade signals, entering positions opposite to speculator consensus.
Small trader monitoring serves primarily as a contrary indicator for all trading styles. Extreme small trader bullishness above seventy-five or eighty typically warns of retail FOMO at market tops. Extreme small trader bearishness below twenty or twenty-five often marks capitulation bottoms where the last weak hands have sold.
VISUALIZATION AND USER INTERFACE
The visual design incorporates multiple elements working together to facilitate decision-making and maintain situational awareness during active trading. The primary COT Index line plots in bold with adjustable line width, defaulting to two pixels for clear visibility against busy price charts. An optional glow effect, controlled by a simple toggle, adds additional visual prominence through multiple plot layers with progressively increasing transparency and width.
A twenty-one period exponential moving average overlays the index line, providing trend context for positioning changes. When the index crosses above its moving average, it signals accelerating bullish sentiment among the selected trader group regardless of whether absolute positioning is extreme. Conversely, when the index crosses below its moving average, it signals deteriorating sentiment and potentially the beginning of a reversal in positioning trends.
The EMA provides a dynamic reference line for assessing positioning momentum. When the index trades far above its EMA, positioning is not only extreme in absolute terms but also building with momentum. When the index trades far below its EMA, positioning is contracting or reversing, which may indicate weakening conviction even if absolute levels remain elevated.
The data table positioned at the top right of the chart displays eleven metrics for each trader category, transforming the indicator from a simple index calculation into an analytical dashboard providing multidimensional market intelligence. Beyond the COT Index itself, users can monitor positioning extremity, which measures how unusual current levels are compared to historical norms using statistical techniques. The extremity metric clarifies whether a reading represents the ninety-fifth or ninety-ninth percentile, with values above two standard deviations indicating genuinely exceptional positioning.
Market power quantifies each group's influence on total open interest. This metric expresses each trader category's net position as a percentage of total market open interest. A commercial entity holding forty percent of total open interest commands significantly more influence than one holding five percent, making their positioning signals more meaningful.
Momentum and rate of change metrics reveal whether positions are building or contracting, providing early warning of potential regime shifts. Position velocity measures the rate of change in positioning changes, effectively a second derivative providing even earlier insight into inflection points.
Sentiment divergence highlights disagreements between commercial and speculative positioning. This metric calculates the absolute difference between normalized commercial and large speculator index values. Wang (2003) found that these high-divergence environments frequently preceded increased volatility and reversals.
The table also displays concentration metrics when available, showing how positioning is distributed among the largest handful of traders in each category. High concentration indicates a few dominant players controlling most of the positioning, while low concentration suggests broad-based participation across many traders.
THE ALERT SYSTEM AND MONITORING
The alert system, comprising five distinct alert conditions, enables systematic monitoring of dozens of futures markets without constant screen watching. The bullish and bearish COT signal alerts trigger when the index crosses user-defined thresholds, indicating the selected trader group has reached extreme positioning worthy of attention. These alerts fire in real-time as new weekly COT data publishes, typically Friday afternoon following the Tuesday measurement date.
Extreme positioning alerts fire at ninety and ten index levels, representing the top and bottom ten percent of the historical range, warning of particularly stretched readings that historically precede reversals with high probability. When commercials reach a COT Index reading below ten, they are expressing their most bearish stance in the entire lookback period.
The data staleness alert notifies users when COT reports have not updated for more than ten days, preventing reliance on outdated information for trading decisions. Government shutdowns or federal holidays can interrupt the normal Friday publication schedule. Using stale signals while believing them current creates dangerous false confidence.
The indicator's watermark information display positioned in the bottom right corner provides essential context at a glance. This persistent display shows the symbol and timeframe, the COT report date timestamp, days since last update, and the current signal state. A trader analyzing a potential short entry in crude oil can glance at the watermark to instantly confirm positioning context without interrupting analysis flow.
LIMITATIONS AND REALISTIC EXPECTATIONS
Practical application requires understanding both the indicator's considerable strengths and inherent limitations. COT data inherently lags price action by three days, as Tuesday positions are not published until Friday afternoon. This delay means the indicator cannot catch rapid intraday reversals or respond to surprise news events. Traders using the COT Index for timing entries must accept this latency and focus on swing trading and position trading timeframes where three-day lags matter less than in day trading or scalping.
The weekly publication schedule similarly makes the indicator unsuitable for short-term trading strategies requiring immediate feedback. The COT Index works best for traders operating on weekly or longer timeframes, where positioning shifts measured in weeks and months align with trading horizon.
Extreme COT readings can persist far longer than typical technical indicators suggest, testing the patience and capital reserves of traders attempting to fade them. When crude oil enters a sustained bull market driven by genuine supply disruptions, commercial hedgers may maintain bearish positioning for many months as prices grind higher. A commercial COT Index reading of fifteen indicating extreme bearishness might persist for three months while prices continue rallying before finally reversing. Traders without sufficient capital and risk tolerance to weather such drawdowns will exit prematurely, precisely when the signal is about to work (Irwin and Sanders, 2012).
Position sizing discipline becomes paramount when implementing COT-based strategies. Rather than risking large percentages of capital on individual signals, successful COT traders typically allocate modest position sizes across multiple signals, allowing some to take time to mature while others work more quickly.
The indicator also cannot overcome fundamental regime changes that alter the structural drivers of markets. If gold enters a true secular bull market driven by monetary debasement, commercial hedgers may remain persistently bearish as mining companies sell forward years of production at what they perceive as favorable prices. Their positioning indicates valuation concerns from a production cost perspective, but cannot stop prices from rising if investment demand overwhelms physical supply-demand balance.
Similarly, structural changes in market participation can alter the meaning of positioning extremes. The growth of commodity index investing in the two thousands brought massive passive long-only capital into futures markets, fundamentally changing typical positioning ranges. Traders relying on COT signals without recognizing this regime change would have generated numerous false bearish signals during the commodity supercycle from 2003 to 2008.
The research foundation supporting COT analysis derives primarily from commodity markets where the commercial hedger information advantage is most pronounced. Studies specifically examining financial futures like equity indices and bonds show weaker but still present effects. Traders should calibrate expectations accordingly, recognizing that COT analysis likely works better for crude oil, natural gas, corn, and wheat than for the S&P 500, Treasury bonds, or currency futures.
Another important limitation involves the reporting threshold structure. Not all market participants appear in COT data, only those holding positions above specified minimums. In markets dominated by a few large players, concentration metrics become critical for proper interpretation. A single large trader accounting for thirty percent of commercial positioning might skew the entire category if their individual circumstances are idiosyncratic rather than representative.
GOLD FUTURES DURING A HYPOTHETICAL MARKET CYCLE
Consider a practical example using gold futures during a hypothetical but realistic market scenario that illustrates how the COT Index indicator guides trading decisions through a complete market cycle. Suppose gold has rallied from fifteen hundred to nineteen hundred dollars per ounce over six months, driven by inflation concerns following aggressive monetary expansion, geopolitical uncertainty, and sustained buying by Asian central banks for reserve diversification.
Large speculators, operating primarily trend-following strategies, have accumulated increasingly bullish positions throughout this rally. Their COT Index has climbed progressively from forty-five to eighty-five. The table display shows that large speculators now hold net long positions representing thirty-two percent of total open interest, their highest in four years. Momentum indicators show positive readings, indicating positions are still building though at a decelerating rate. Position velocity has turned negative, suggesting the pace of position building is slowing.
Meanwhile, commercial hedgers have responded to the rally by aggressively selling forward production and inventory. Their COT Index has moved inversely to price, declining from fifty-five to twenty. This bearish commercial positioning represents mining companies locking in forward sales at prices they view as attractive relative to production costs. The table shows commercials now hold net short positions representing twenty-nine percent of total open interest, their most bearish stance in five years. Concentration metrics indicate this positioning is broadly distributed across many commercial entities, suggesting the bearish stance reflects collective industry view rather than idiosyncratic positioning by a single firm.
Small traders, attracted by mainstream financial media coverage of gold's impressive rally, have recently piled into long positions. Their COT Index has jumped from forty-five to seventy-eight as retail investors chase the trend. Television financial networks feature frequent segments on gold with bullish guests. Internet forums and social media show surging retail interest. This retail enthusiasm historically marks late-stage trend development rather than early opportunity.
The COT Index indicator, configured to monitor commercial positioning from a contrarian perspective, displays a clear bearish signal given the extreme commercial short positioning. The table displays multiple confirming metrics: positioning extremity shows commercials at the ninety-sixth percentile of bearishness, market power indicates they control twenty-nine percent of open interest, and sentiment divergence registers sixty-five, indicating massive disagreement between commercial hedgers and large speculators. This divergence, the highest in three years, places the market in the historically high-risk category for reversals.
The interpretation requires nuance and consideration of context beyond just COT data. Commercials are not necessarily predicting an imminent crash. Rather, they are hedging business operations at what they collectively view as favorable price levels. However, the data reveals they have sold unusually large quantities of forward production, suggesting either exceptional production expectations for the year ahead or concern about sustaining current price levels or combination of both. Combined with extreme speculator positioning indicating a crowded long trade, and small trader enthusiasm confirming retail FOMO, the confluence suggests elevated reversal risk even if the precise timing remains uncertain.
A prudent trader analyzing this situation might take several actions based on COT Index signals. Existing long positions could be tightened with closer stop losses. Profit-taking on a portion of long exposure could lock in gains while maintaining some participation. Some traders might initiate modest short positions as portfolio hedges, sizing them appropriately for the inherent uncertainty in timing reversals. Others might simply move to the sidelines, avoiding new long entries until positioning normalizes.
The key lesson from case study analysis is that COT signals provide probabilistic edges rather than deterministic predictions. They work over many observations by identifying higher-probability configurations, not by generating perfect calls on individual trades. A fifty-five percent win rate with proper risk management produces substantial profits over time, yet still means forty-five percent of signals will be premature or wrong. Traders must embrace this probabilistic reality rather than seeking the impossible goal of perfect accuracy.
INTEGRATION WITH TRADING SYSTEMS
Integration with existing trading systems represents a natural and powerful use case for COT analysis, adding a positioning dimension to price-based technical approaches or fundamental analytical frameworks. Few traders rely exclusively on a single indicator or methodology. Rather, they build systems that synthesize multiple information sources, with each component addressing different aspects of market behavior.
Trend followers might use COT extremes as regime filters, modifying position sizing or avoiding new trend entries when positioning reaches levels historically associated with reversals. Consider a classic trend-following system based on moving average crossovers and momentum breakouts. Integration of COT analysis adds nuance. When large speculator positioning exceeds ninety or commercial positioning falls below ten, the regime filter recognizes elevated reversal risk. The system might reduce position sizing by fifty percent for new signals during these high-risk periods (Kaufman, 2013).
Mean reversion traders might require COT signal confluence before fading extended moves. When crude oil becomes technically overbought and large speculators show extreme long positioning above eighty-five, both signals confirm. If only technical indicators show extremes while positioning remains neutral, the potential short signal is rejected, avoiding fades of trends with underlying institutional support (Kaufman, 2013).
Discretionary traders can monitor the indicator as a continuous awareness tool, informing bias and position sizing without dictating mechanical entries and exits. A discretionary trader might notice commercial positioning shifting from neutral to progressively more bullish over several months. This trend informs growing positive bias even without triggering mechanical signals.
Multi-timeframe analysis represents another powerful integration approach. A trader might use daily charts for trade execution and timing while monitoring weekly COT positioning for strategic context. When both timeframes align, highest-probability opportunities emerge.
Portfolio construction for futures traders can incorporate COT signals as an additional selection criterion. Markets showing strong technical setups AND favorable COT positioning receive highest allocations. Markets with strong technicals but neutral or unfavorable positioning receive reduced allocations.
ADVANCED METRICS AND INTERPRETATION
The metrics table transforms simple positioning data into multidimensional market intelligence. Position extremity, calculated as the absolute deviation from the historical mean normalized by standard deviation, helps identify truly unusual readings versus routine fluctuations. A reading above two standard deviations indicates ninety-fifth percentile or higher extremity. Above three standard deviations indicates ninety-ninth percentile or higher, genuinely rare positioning that historically precedes major events with high probability.
Market power, expressed as a percentage of total open interest, reveals whose positioning matters most from a mechanical market impact perspective. Consider two scenarios in gold futures. In scenario one, commercials show a COT Index reading of fifteen while their market power metric shows they hold net shorts representing thirty-five percent of open interest. This is a high-confidence bearish signal. In scenario two, commercials also show a reading of fifteen, but market power shows only eight percent. While positioning is extreme relative to this category's normal range, their limited market share means less mechanical influence on price.
The rate of change and momentum metrics highlight whether positions are accelerating or decelerating, often providing earlier warnings than absolute levels alone. A COT Index reading of seventy-five with rapidly building momentum suggests continued movement toward extremes. Conversely, a reading of eighty-five with decelerating or negative momentum indicates the positioning trend is exhausting.
Position velocity measures the rate of change in positioning changes, effectively a second derivative. When velocity shifts from positive to negative, it indicates that while positioning may still be growing, the pace of growth is slowing. This deceleration often precedes actual reversal in positioning direction by several weeks.
Sentiment divergence calculates the absolute difference between normalized commercial and large speculator index values. When commercials show extreme bearish positioning at twenty while large speculators show extreme bullish positioning at eighty, the divergence reaches sixty, representing near-maximum disagreement. Wang (2003) found that these high-divergence environments frequently preceded increased volatility and reversals. The mechanism is intuitive. Extreme divergence indicates the informed hedgers and momentum-following speculators have positioned opposite each other with conviction. One group will prove correct and profit while the other proves incorrect and suffers losses. The resolution of this disagreement through price movement often involves volatility.
The table also displays concentration metrics when available. High concentration indicates a few dominant players controlling most of the positioning within a category, while low concentration suggests broad-based participation. Broad-based positioning more reliably reflects collective market intelligence and industry consensus. If mining companies globally all independently decide to hedge aggressively at similar price levels, it suggests genuine industry-wide view about price valuations rather than circumstances specific to one firm.
DATA QUALITY AND RELIABILITY
The CFTC has maintained COT reporting in various forms since the nineteen twenties, providing nearly a century of positioning data across multiple market cycles. However, data quality and reporting standards have evolved substantially over this long period. Modern electronic reporting implemented in the late nineteen nineties and early two thousands significantly improved accuracy and timeliness compared to earlier paper-based systems.
Traders should understand that COT reports capture positions as of Tuesday's close each week. Markets remain open three additional days before publication on Friday afternoon, meaning the reported data is three days stale when received. During periods of rapid market movement or major news events, this lag can be significant. The indicator addresses this limitation by including timestamp information and staleness warnings.
The three-day lag creates particular challenges during extreme volatility episodes. Flash crashes, surprise central bank interventions, geopolitical shocks, and other high-impact events can completely transform market positioning within hours. Traders must exercise judgment about whether reported positioning remains relevant given intervening events.
Reporting thresholds also mean that not all market participants appear in disaggregated COT data. Traders holding positions below specified minimums aggregate into the non-reportable or small trader category. This aggregation affects different markets differently. In highly liquid contracts like crude oil with thousands of participants, reportable traders might represent seventy to eighty percent of open interest. In thinly traded contracts with only dozens of active participants, a few large reportable positions might represent ninety-five percent of open interest.
Another data quality consideration involves trader classification into categories. The CFTC assigns traders to commercial or non-commercial categories based on reported business purpose and activities. However, this process is not perfect. Some entities engage in both commercial and speculative activities, creating ambiguity about proper classification. The transition to Disaggregated reports attempted to address some of these ambiguities by creating more granular categories.
COMPARISON WITH ALTERNATIVE APPROACHES
Several alternative approaches to COT analysis exist in the trading community beyond the normalization methodology employed by this indicator. Some analysts focus on absolute position changes week-over-week rather than index-based normalization. This approach calculates the change in net positioning from one week to the next. The emphasis falls on momentum in positioning changes rather than absolute levels relative to history. This method potentially identifies regime shifts earlier but sacrifices cross-market comparability (Briese, 2008).
Other practitioners employ more complex statistical transformations including percentile rankings, z-score standardization, and machine learning classification algorithms. Ruan and Zhang (2018) demonstrated that machine learning models applied to COT data could achieve modest improvements in forecasting accuracy compared to simple threshold-based approaches. However, these gains came at the cost of interpretability and implementation complexity.
The COT Index indicator intentionally employs a relatively straightforward normalization methodology for several important reasons. First, transparency enhances user understanding and trust. Traders can verify calculations manually and develop intuitive feel for what different readings mean. Second, academic research suggests that most of the predictive power in COT data comes from extreme positioning levels rather than subtle patterns requiring complex statistical methods to detect. Third, robust methods that work consistently across many markets and time periods tend to be simpler rather than more complex, reducing the risk of overfitting to historical data. Fourth, the complexity costs of implementation matter for retail traders without programming teams or computational infrastructure.
PSYCHOLOGICAL ASPECTS OF COT TRADING
Trading based on COT data requires psychological fortitude that differs from momentum-based approaches. Contrarian positioning signals inherently mean betting against prevailing market sentiment and recent price action. When commercials reach extreme bearish positioning, prices have typically been rising, sometimes for extended periods. The price chart looks bullish, momentum indicators confirm strength, moving averages align positively. The COT signal says bet against all of this. This psychological difficulty explains why COT analysis remains underutilized relative to trend-following methods.
Human psychology strongly predisposes us toward extrapolation and recency bias. When prices rally for months, our pattern-matching brains naturally expect continued rally. The recent price action dominates our perception, overwhelming rational analysis about positioning extremes and historical probabilities. The COT signal asking us to sell requires overriding these powerful psychological impulses.
The indicator design attempts to support the required psychological discipline through several features. Clear threshold markers and signal states reduce ambiguity about when signals trigger. When the commercial index crosses below twenty, the signal is explicit and unambiguous. The background shifts to red, the signal label displays bearish, and alerts fire. This explicitness helps traders act on signals rather than waiting for additional confirmation that may never arrive.
The metrics table provides analytical justification for contrarian positions, helping traders maintain conviction during inevitable periods of adverse price movement. When a trader enters short positions based on extreme commercial bearish positioning but prices continue rallying for several weeks, doubt naturally emerges. The table display provides reassurance. Commercial positioning remains extremely bearish. Divergence remains high. The positioning thesis remains intact even though price action has not yet confirmed.
Alert functionality ensures traders do not miss signals due to inattention while also not requiring constant monitoring that can lead to emotional decision-making. Setting alerts for COT extremes enables a healthier relationship with markets. When meaningful signals occur, alerts notify them. They can then calmly assess the situation and execute planned responses.
However, no indicator design can completely overcome the psychological difficulty of contrarian trading. Some traders simply cannot maintain short positions while prices rally. For these traders, COT analysis might be better employed as an exit signal for long positions rather than an entry signal for shorts.
Ultimately, successful COT trading requires developing comfort with probabilistic thinking rather than certainty-seeking. The signals work over many observations by identifying higher-probability configurations, not by generating perfect calls on individual trades. A fifty-five or sixty percent win rate with proper risk management produces substantial profits over years, yet still means forty to forty-five percent of signals will be premature or wrong. COT analysis provides genuine edge, but edge means probability advantage, not elimination of losing trades.
EDUCATIONAL RESOURCES AND CONTINUOUS LEARNING
The indicator provides extensive built-in educational resources through its documentation, detailed tooltips, and transparent calculations. However, mastering COT analysis requires study beyond any single tool or resource. Several excellent resources provide valuable extensions of the concepts covered in this guide.
Books and practitioner-focused monographs offer accessible entry points. Stephen Briese published The Commitments of Traders Bible in two thousand eight, offering detailed breakdowns of how different markets and trader categories behave (Briese, 2008). Briese's work stands out for its empirical focus and market-specific insights. Jack Schwager includes discussion of COT analysis within the broader context of market behavior in his book Market Sense and Nonsense (Schwager, 2012). Perry Kaufman's Trading Systems and Methods represents perhaps the most rigorous practitioner-focused text on systematic trading approaches including COT analysis (Kaufman, 2013).
Academic journal articles provide the rigorous statistical foundation underlying COT analysis. The Journal of Futures Markets regularly publishes research on positioning data and its predictive properties. Bessembinder and Chan's earlier work on systematic risk, hedging pressure, and risk premiums in futures markets provides theoretical foundation (Bessembinder, 1992). Chang's examination of speculator returns provides historical context (Chang, 1985). Irwin and Sanders provide essential skeptical perspective in their two thousand twelve article (Irwin and Sanders, 2012). Wang's two thousand three article provides one of the most empirical analyses of COT data across multiple commodity markets (Wang, 2003).
Online resources extend beyond academic and book-length treatments. The CFTC website provides free access to current and historical COT reports in multiple formats. The explanatory materials section offers detailed documentation of report construction, category definitions, and historical methodology changes. Traders serious about COT analysis should read these official CFTC documents to understand exactly what they are analyzing.
Commercial COT data services such as Barchart provide enhanced visualization and analysis tools beyond raw CFTC data. TradingView's educational materials, published scripts library, and user community provide additional resources for exploring different approaches to COT analysis.
The key to mastering COT analysis lies not in finding a single definitive source but rather in building understanding through multiple perspectives and information sources. Academic research provides rigorous empirical foundation. Practitioner-focused books offer practical implementation insights. Direct engagement with data through systematic backtesting develops intuition about how positioning dynamics manifest across different market conditions.
SYNTHESIZING KNOWLEDGE INTO PRACTICE
The COT Index indicator represents the synthesis of academic research, trading experience, and software engineering into a practical tool accessible to retail traders equipped with nothing more than a TradingView account and willingness to learn. What once required expensive data subscriptions, custom programming capabilities, statistical software, and institutional resources now appears as a straightforward indicator requiring only basic parameter selection and modest study to understand. This democratization of institutional-grade analysis tools represents a broader trend in financial markets over recent decades.
Yet technology and data access alone provide no edge without understanding and discipline. Markets remain relentlessly efficient at eliminating edges that become too widely known and mechanically exploited. The COT Index indicator succeeds only when users invest time learning the underlying concepts, understand the limitations and probability distributions involved, and integrate signals thoughtfully into trading plans rather than applying them mechanically.
The academic research demonstrates conclusively that institutional positioning contains genuine information about future price movements, particularly at extremes where commercial hedgers are maximally bearish or bullish relative to historical norms. This informational content is neither perfect nor deterministic but rather probabilistic, providing edge over many observations through identification of higher-probability configurations. Bessembinder and Chan's finding that commercial positioning explained modest but significant variance in future returns illustrates this probabilistic nature perfectly (Bessembinder and Chan, 1992). The effect is real and statistically significant, yet it explains perhaps ten to fifteen percent of return variance rather than most variance. Much of price movement remains unpredictable even with positioning intelligence.
The practical implication is that COT analysis works best as one component of a trading system rather than a standalone oracle. It provides the positioning dimension, revealing where the smart money has positioned and where the crowd has followed, but price action analysis provides the timing dimension. Fundamental analysis provides the catalyst dimension. Risk management provides the survival dimension. These components work together synergistically.
The indicator's design philosophy prioritizes transparency and education over black-box complexity, empowering traders to understand exactly what they are analyzing and why. Every calculation is documented and user-adjustable. The threshold markers, background coloring, tables, and clear signal states provide multiple reinforcing channels for conveying the same information.
This educational approach reflects a conviction that sustainable trading success comes from genuine understanding rather than mechanical system-following. Traders who understand why commercial positioning matters, how different trader categories behave, what positioning extremes signify, and where signals fit within probability distributions can adapt when market conditions change. Traders mechanically following black-box signals without comprehension abandon systems after normal losing streaks.
The research foundation supporting COT analysis comes primarily from commodity markets where commercial hedger informational advantages are most pronounced. Agricultural producers hedging crops know more about supply conditions than distant speculators. Energy companies hedging production know more about operating costs than financial traders. Metals miners hedging output know more about ore grades than index funds. Financial futures markets show weaker but still present effects.
The journey from reading this documentation to profitable trading based on COT analysis involves several stages that cannot be rushed. Initial reading and basic understanding represents the first stage. Historical study represents the second stage, reviewing past market cycles to observe how positioning extremes preceded major turning points. Paper trading or small-size real trading represents the third stage to experience the psychological challenges. Refinement based on results and personal psychology represents the fourth stage.
Markets will continue evolving. New participant categories will emerge. Regulatory structures will change. Technology will advance. Yet the fundamental dynamics driving COT analysis, that different market participants have different information, different motivations, and different forecasting abilities that manifest in their positioning, will persist as long as futures markets exist. While specific thresholds or optimal parameters may shift over time, the core logic remains sound and adaptable.
The trader equipped with this indicator, understanding of the theory and evidence behind COT analysis, realistic expectations about probability rather than certainty, discipline to maintain positions through adverse volatility, and patience to allow signals time to develop possesses genuine edge in markets. The edge is not enormous, markets cannot allow large persistent inefficiencies without arbitraging them away, but it is real, measurable, and exploitable by those willing to invest in learning and disciplined application.
REFERENCES
Bessembinder, H. (1992) Systematic risk, hedging pressure, and risk premiums in futures markets, Review of Financial Studies, 5(4), pp. 637-667.
Bessembinder, H. and Chan, K. (1992) The profitability of technical trading rules in the Asian stock markets, Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, 3(2-3), pp. 257-284.
Briese, S. (2008) The Commitments of Traders Bible: How to Profit from Insider Market Intelligence. Hoboken: John Wiley & Sons.
Chang, E.C. (1985) Returns to speculators and the theory of normal backwardation, Journal of Finance, 40(1), pp. 193-208.
Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) (2009) Explanatory Notes: Disaggregated Commitments of Traders Report. Available at: www.cftc.gov (Accessed: 15 January 2025).
Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) (2020) Commitments of Traders: About the Report. Available at: www.cftc.gov (Accessed: 15 January 2025).
Irwin, S.H. and Sanders, D.R. (2012) Testing the Masters Hypothesis in commodity futures markets, Energy Economics, 34(1), pp. 256-269.
Kaufman, P.J. (2013) Trading Systems and Methods. 5th edn. Hoboken: John Wiley & Sons.
Ruan, Y. and Zhang, Y. (2018) Forecasting commodity futures prices using machine learning: Evidence from the Chinese commodity futures market, Applied Economics Letters, 25(12), pp. 845-849.
Sanders, D.R., Boris, K. and Manfredo, M. (2004) Hedgers, funds, and small speculators in the energy futures markets: an analysis of the CFTC's Commitments of Traders reports, Energy Economics, 26(3), pp. 425-445.
Schwager, J.D. (2012) Market Sense and Nonsense: How the Markets Really Work and How They Don't. Hoboken: John Wiley & Sons.
Tharp, V.K. (2008) Super Trader: Make Consistent Profits in Good and Bad Markets. New York: McGraw-Hill.
Wang, C. (2003) The behavior and performance of major types of futures traders, Journal of Futures Markets, 23(1), pp. 1-31.
Williams, L.R. and Noseworthy, M. (2009) The Right Stock at the Right Time: Prospering in the Coming Good Years. Hoboken: John Wiley & Sons.
FURTHER READING
For traders seeking to deepen their understanding of COT analysis and futures market positioning beyond this documentation, the following resources provide valuable extensions:
Academic Journal Articles:
Fishe, R.P.H. and Smith, A. (2012) Do speculators drive commodity prices away from supply and demand fundamentals?, Journal of Commodity Markets, 1(1), pp. 1-16.
Haigh, M.S., Hranaiova, J. and Overdahl, J.A. (2007) Hedge funds, volatility, and liquidity provision in energy futures markets, Journal of Alternative Investments, 9(4), pp. 10-38.
Kocagil, A.E. (1997) Does futures speculation stabilize spot prices? Evidence from metals markets, Applied Financial Economics, 7(1), pp. 115-125.
Sanders, D.R. and Irwin, S.H. (2011) The impact of index funds in commodity futures markets: A systems approach, Journal of Alternative Investments, 14(1), pp. 40-49.
Books and Practitioner Resources:
Murphy, J.J. (1999) Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets: A Guide to Trading Methods and Applications. New York: New York Institute of Finance.
Pring, M.J. (2002) Technical Analysis Explained: The Investor's Guide to Spotting Investment Trends and Turning Points. 4th edn. New York: McGraw-Hill.
Federal Reserve and Research Institution Publications:
Federal Reserve Banks regularly publish working papers examining commodity markets, futures positioning, and price discovery mechanisms. The Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco and Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City maintain active research programs in this area.
Online Resources:
The CFTC website provides free access to current and historical COT reports, explanatory materials, and regulatory documentation.
Barchart offers enhanced COT data visualization and screening tools.
TradingView's community library contains numerous published scripts and educational materials exploring different approaches to positioning analysis.
Contrarian Period High & LowContrarian Period High & Low
This indicator pairs nicely with the Contrarian 100 MA and can be located here:
Overview
The "Contrarian Period High & Low" indicator is a powerful technical analysis tool designed for traders seeking to identify key support and resistance levels and capitalize on contrarian trading opportunities. By tracking the highest highs and lowest lows over user-defined periods (Daily, Weekly, or Monthly), this indicator plots historical levels and generates buy and sell signals when price breaks these levels in a contrarian manner. A unique blue dot counter and action table enhance decision-making, making it ideal for swing traders, trend followers, and those trading forex, stocks, or cryptocurrencies. Optimized for daily charts, it can be adapted to other timeframes with proper testing.
How It Works
The indicator identifies the highest high and lowest low within a specified period (e.g., daily, weekly, or monthly) and draws horizontal lines for the previous period’s extremes on the chart. These levels act as dynamic support and resistance zones. Contrarian signals are generated when the price crosses below the previous period’s low (buy signal) or above the previous period’s high (sell signal), indicating potential reversals. A blue dot counter tracks consecutive buy signals, and a table displays the count and recommended action, helping traders decide whether to hold or flip positions.
Key Components
Period High/Low Levels: Tracks the highest high and lowest low for each period, plotting red lines for highs and green lines for lows from the bar where they occurred, extending for a user-defined length (default: 200 bars).
Contrarian Signals: Generates buy signals (blue circles) when price crosses below the previous period’s low and sell signals (white circles) when price crosses above the previous period’s high, designed to capture potential reversals.
Blue Dot Tracker: Counts consecutive buy signals (“blue dots”). If three or more occur, it suggests a stronger trend, with the table recommending whether to “Hold Investment” or “Flip Investment.”
Action Table: A 2x2 table in the bottom-right corner displays the blue dot count and action (“Hold Investment” if count ≥ 4, else “Flip Investment”) for quick reference.
Mathematical Concepts
Period Detection: Uses an approximate bar count to define periods (1 bar for Daily, 5 bars for Weekly, 20 bars for Monthly on a daily chart). When a new period starts, the previous period’s high/low is finalized and plotted.
High/Low Tracking:
Highest high (periodHigh) and lowest low (periodLow) are updated within the period.
Lines are drawn at these levels when the period ends, starting from the bar where the extreme occurred (periodHighBar, periodLowBar).
Signal Logic:
Buy signal: ta.crossunder(close , prevPeriodLow) and not lowBroken and barstate.isconfirmed
Sell signal: ta.crossover(close , prevPeriodHigh) and not highBroken and barstate.isconfirmed
Flags (highBroken, lowBroken) prevent multiple signals for the same level within a period.
Blue Dot Counter: Increments on each buy signal, resets on a sell signal or if price exceeds the entry price after three or more buy signals.
Entry and Exit Rules
Buy Signal (Blue Circle): Triggered when the price crosses below the previous period’s low, suggesting a potential oversold condition and buying opportunity. The signal appears as a blue circle below the price bar.
Sell Signal (White Circle): Triggered when the price crosses above the previous period’s high, indicating a potential overbought condition and selling opportunity. The signal appears as a white circle above the price bar.
Blue Dot Tracker:
Increments blueDotCount on each buy signal and sets an entryPrice on the first buy.
Resets on a sell signal or if price exceeds entryPrice after three or more buy signals.
If blueDotCount >= 3, the table suggests holding; if >= 4, it reinforces “Hold Investment.”
Exit Rules: Exit a buy position on a sell signal or when price exceeds the entry price after three or more buy signals. Combine with other tools (e.g., trendlines, support/resistance) for additional confirmation. Always apply proper risk management.
Recommended Usage
The "Contrarian Period High & Low" indicator is optimized for daily charts but can be adapted to other timeframes (e.g., 1H, 4H) with adjustments to the period bar count. It excels in markets with clear support/resistance levels and potential reversal zones. Traders should:
Backtest the indicator on their chosen asset and timeframe to validate signal reliability.
Combine with other technical tools (e.g., moving averages, Fibonacci levels) for stronger trade confirmation.
Adjust barsPerPeriod (e.g., ~120 bars for Weekly on hourly charts) based on the chart timeframe and market volatility.
Monitor the action table to guide position management based on blue dot counts.
Customization Options
Period Type: Choose between Daily, Weekly, or Monthly periods (default: Monthly).
Line Length: Set the length of high/low lines in bars (default: 200).
Show Highs/Lows: Toggle visibility of period high (red) and low (green) lines.
Max Lines to Keep: Limit the number of historical lines displayed (default: 10).
Hide Signals: Toggle buy/sell signal visibility for a cleaner chart.
Table Display: A fixed table in the bottom-right corner shows the blue dot count and action, with yellow (Hold) or green (Flip) backgrounds based on the count.
Why Use This Indicator?
The "Contrarian Period High & Low" indicator offers a unique blend of support/resistance visualization and contrarian signal generation, making it a versatile tool for identifying potential reversals. Its clear visual cues (lines and signals), blue dot tracker, and actionable table provide traders with an intuitive way to monitor market structure and manage trades. Whether you’re a beginner or an experienced trader, this indicator enhances your ability to spot key levels and time entries/exits effectively.
Tips for Users
Test the indicator thoroughly on your chosen market and timeframe to optimize settings (e.g., adjust barsPerPeriod for non-daily charts).
Use in conjunction with price action or other indicators for stronger trade setups.
Monitor the action table to decide whether to hold or flip positions based on blue dot counts.
Ensure your chart timeframe aligns with the selected period type (e.g., daily chart for Monthly periods).
Apply strict risk management to protect against false breakouts.
Happy trading with the Contrarian Period High & Low indicator! Share your feedback and strategies in the TradingView community!
ADR Tracker Version 2Description
The **ADR Tracker** plots a customizable panel on your chart that monitors the Average Daily Range (ADR) and shows how today’s price action compares to that average. It calculates the daily high–low range for each of the past 14 days (can be adjusted) and then takes a simple moving average of those ranges to determine the ADR.
**Features:**
* **Current ADR value:** Shows the 14‑day ADR in price units.
* **ADR status:** Indicates whether today’s range has reached or exceeded the ADR.
* **Ticks remaining:** Calculates how many minimum price ticks remain before the ADR would be met.
* **Real‑time tracking:** Monitors the intraday high and low to update the range continuously.
* **Customizable panel:** Uses TradingView’s table object to display the information. You can set the table’s horizontal and vertical position (top/middle/bottom and left/centre/right) with inputs. The script also lets you change the text and background colours, as well as the width and height of each row. Table cells use explicit width and height percentages, which Pine supports in v6. Each call to `table.cell()` defines the text, colours and dimensions for its cell, so the panel resizes automatically based on your settings.
**Usage:**
Apply the indicator to any chart. For the most accurate real‑time tracking, use it on intraday timeframes (e.g. 5‑min or 1‑hour) so the current day’s range updates as new bars arrive. Adjust the inputs in the settings panel to reposition the list or change its appearance.
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This description explains what the indicator does and highlights its customizable table display, referencing the Pine Script table features used.
Burst PowerThe Burst Power indicator is to be used for Indian markets where most stocks have a maximum price band limit of 20%.
This indicator is intended to identify stocks with high potential for significant price movements. By analysing historical price action over a user-defined lookback period, it calculates a Burst Power score that reflects the stock's propensity for rapid and substantial moves. This can be helpful for stock selection in strategies involving momentum bursts, swing trading, or identifying stocks with explosive potential.
Key Components
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Significant Move Counts:
5% Moves: Counts the number of days within the lookback period where the stock had a positive close-to-close move between 5% and 10%.
10% Moves: Counts the number of days with a positive close-to-close move between 10% and 19%.
19% Moves: Counts the number of days with a positive close-to-close move of 19% or more.
Maximum Price Move (%):
Identifies the largest positive close-to-close percentage move within the lookback period, along with the date it occurred.
Burst Power Score:
A composite score calculated using the counts of significant moves: Burst Power =(Count5%/5) +(Count10%/2) + (Count19%/0.5)
The score is then rounded to the nearest whole number.
A higher Burst Power score indicates a higher frequency of significant price bursts.
Visual Indicators:
Table Display: Presents all the calculated data in a customisable table on the chart.
Markers on Chart: Plots markers on the chart where significant moves occurred, aiding visual analysis.
Using the Lookback Period
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The lookback period determines how much historical data the indicator analyses. Users can select from predefined options:
3 Months
6 Months
1 Year
3 Years
5 Years
A shorter lookback period focuses on recent price action, which may be more relevant for short-term trading strategies. A longer lookback period provides a broader historical context, useful for identifying long-term patterns and behaviors.
Interpreting the Burst Power Score
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High Burst Power Score (≥15):
Indicates the stock frequently experiences significant price moves.
Suitable for traders seeking quick momentum bursts and swing trading opportunities.
Stocks with high scores may be more volatile but offer potential for rapid gains.
Moderate Burst Power Score (10 to 14):
Suggests occasional significant price movements.
May suit traders looking for a balance between volatility and stability.
Low Burst Power Score (<10):
Reflects fewer significant price bursts.
Stocks are more likely to exhibit longer, sustainable, but slower price trends.
May be preferred by traders focusing on steady growth or longer-term investments.
Note: Trading involves uncertainties, and the Burst Power score should be considered as one of many factors in a comprehensive trading strategy. It is essential to incorporate broader market analysis and risk management practices.
Customisation Options
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The indicator offers several customisation settings to tailor the display and functionality to individual preferences:
Display Mode:
Full Mode: Shows the detailed table with all components, including significant move counts, maximum price move, and the Burst Power score.
Mini Mode: Displays only the Burst Power score and its corresponding indicator (green, orange, or red circle).
Show Latest Date Column:
Toggle the display of the "Latest Date" column in the table, which shows the most recent occurrence of each significant move category.
Theme (Dark Mode):
Switch between Dark Mode and Light Mode for better visual integration with your chart's color scheme.
Table Position and Size:
Position: Place the table at various locations on the chart (top, middle, bottom; left, center, right).
Size: Adjust the table's text size (tiny, small, normal, large, huge, auto) for optimal readability.
Header Size: Customise the font size of the table headers (Small, Medium, Large).
Color Settings:
Disable Colors in Table: Option to display the table without background colors, which can be useful for printing or if colors are distracting.
Bullish Closing Filter:
Another customisation here is to count a move only when the closing for the day is strong. For this, we have an additional filter to see if close is within the chosen % of the range of the day. Closing within the top 1/3, for instance, indicates a way more bullish day tha, say, closing within the bottom 25%.
Move Markers on chart:
The indicator also marks out days with significant moves. You can choose to hide or show the markers on the candles/bars.
Practical Applications
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Momentum Trading: High Burst Power scores can help identify stocks that are likely to experience rapid price movements, suitable for momentum traders.
Swing Trading: Traders looking for short- to medium-term opportunities may focus on stocks with moderate to high Burst Power scores.
Positional Trading: Lower Burst Power scores may indicate steadier stocks that are less prone to volatility, aligning with long-term investment strategies.
Risk Management: Understanding a stock's propensity for significant moves can aid in setting appropriate stop-loss and take-profit levels.
Disclaimer: Trading involves significant risk, and past performance is not indicative of future results. The Burst Power indicator is intended for educational purposes and should not be construed as financial advice. Always conduct thorough research and consult with a qualified financial professional before making investment decisions.
Uptrick: TimeFrame Trends: Performance & Sentiment Indicator### **Uptrick: TimeFrame Trends: Performance & Sentiment Indicator (TFT) - In-Depth Explanation**
#### **Overview**
The **Uptrick: TimeFrame Trends: Performance & Sentiment Indicator (TFT)** is a sophisticated trading tool designed to provide traders with a comprehensive view of market trends across multiple timeframes, combined with a sentiment gauge through the Relative Strength Index (RSI). This indicator offers a unique blend of performance analysis, sentiment evaluation, and visual signal generation, making it an invaluable resource for traders who seek to understand both the macro and micro trends within a financial instrument.
#### **Purpose**
The primary purpose of the TFT indicator is to empower traders with the ability to assess the performance of an asset over various timeframes while simultaneously gauging market sentiment through the RSI. By analyzing price changes over periods ranging from one week to one year, and complementing this with sentiment signals, TFT enables traders to make informed decisions based on a well-rounded analysis of historical price performance and current market conditions.
#### **Key Components and Features**
1. **Multi-Timeframe Performance Analysis:**
- **Performance Lookback Periods:**
- The TFT indicator calculates the percentage price change over several predefined timeframes: 7 days (1 week), 14 days (2 weeks), 30 days (1 month), 180 days (6 months), and 365 days (1 year). These timeframes provide a layered view of how an asset has performed over short, medium, and long-term periods.
- **Percentage Change Calculation:**
- The indicator computes the percentage change for each timeframe by comparing the current closing price to the closing price at the start of each period. This gives traders insight into the strength and direction of the trend over different periods, helping them identify consistent trends or potential reversals.
2. **Sentiment Analysis Using RSI:**
- **Relative Strength Index (RSI):**
- RSI is a widely-used momentum oscillator that measures the speed and change of price movements. It oscillates between 0 and 100 and is typically used to identify overbought or oversold conditions. In TFT, the RSI is calculated using a 14-period lookback, which is standard for most RSI implementations.
- **RSI Smoothing with EMA:**
- To refine the RSI signal and reduce noise, TFT applies a 10-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) to the RSI values. This smoothed RSI is then used to generate buy, sell, and neutral signals based on its position relative to the 50 level:
- **Buy Signal:** Triggered when the smoothed RSI crosses above 50, indicating bullish sentiment.
- **Sell Signal:** Triggered when the smoothed RSI crosses below 50, indicating bearish sentiment.
- **Neutral Signal:** Triggered when the smoothed RSI equals 50, suggesting indecision or a balanced market.
3. **Visual Signal Generation:**
- **Signal Plots:**
- TFT provides clear visual cues directly on the price chart by plotting shapes at the points where buy, sell, or neutral signals are generated. These shapes are color-coded (green for buy, red for sell, yellow for neutral) and are positioned below or above the price bars for easy identification.
- **First Occurrence Trigger:**
- To avoid clutter and focus on significant market shifts, TFT only triggers the first occurrence of each signal type. This feature helps traders concentrate on the most relevant signals without being overwhelmed by repeated alerts.
4. **Customizable Performance & Sentiment Table:**
- **Table Display:**
- The TFT indicator includes a customizable table that displays the calculated percentage changes for each timeframe. This table is positioned on the chart according to user preference (top-left, top-right, bottom-left, bottom-right) and provides a quick reference to the asset’s performance across multiple periods.
- **Dynamic Text Color:**
- To enhance readability and provide immediate visual feedback, the text color in the table changes based on the direction of the percentage change: green for positive (upward movement) and red for negative (downward movement). This color-coding helps traders quickly assess whether the asset is in an uptrend or downtrend for each period.
- **Customizable Font Size:**
- Traders can adjust the font size of the table to fit their chart layout and personal preferences, ensuring that the information is accessible without being intrusive.
5. **Flexibility and Customization:**
- **Lookback Period Customization:**
- While the default lookback periods are set for common trading intervals (7 days, 14 days, etc.), these can be adjusted to match different trading strategies or market conditions. This flexibility allows traders to tailor the indicator to focus on the timeframes most relevant to their analysis.
- **RSI and EMA Settings:**
- The length of the RSI calculation and the smoothing EMA can also be customized. This is particularly useful for traders who prefer shorter or longer periods for their momentum analysis, allowing them to fine-tune the sensitivity of the indicator.
- **Table Position and Appearance:**
- The table’s position on the chart, along with its font size and colors, is fully customizable. This ensures that the indicator can be integrated seamlessly into any chart setup without obstructing key price data.
#### **Use Cases and Applications**
1. **Trend Identification and Confirmation:**
- **Short-Term Traders:**
- Traders focused on short-term movements can use the 7-day and 14-day performance metrics to identify recent trends and momentum shifts. The RSI signals provide additional confirmation, helping traders enter or exit positions based on the latest market sentiment.
- **Swing Traders:**
- For those holding positions over days to weeks, the 30-day and 180-day performance data are particularly useful. These metrics highlight medium-term trends, and when combined with RSI signals, they provide a robust framework for swing trading strategies.
- **Long-Term Investors:**
- Long-term investors can benefit from the 1-year performance data to gauge the overall health and direction of an asset. The indicator’s ability to track performance across different periods helps in identifying long-term trends and potential reversal points.
2. **Sentiment Analysis and Market Timing:**
- **Market Sentiment Tracking:**
- By using RSI in conjunction with performance metrics, TFT provides a clear picture of market sentiment. Traders can use this information to time their entries and exits more effectively, aligning their trades with periods of strong bullish or bearish sentiment.
- **Avoiding False Signals:**
- The smoothing of RSI helps reduce noise and avoid false signals that are common in volatile markets. This makes the TFT indicator a reliable tool for identifying true market trends and avoiding whipsaws that can lead to losses.
3. **Comprehensive Market Analysis:**
- **Multi-Timeframe Analysis:**
- TFT’s ability to analyze multiple timeframes simultaneously makes it an excellent tool for comprehensive market analysis. Traders can compare short-term and long-term performance to understand the broader market context, making it easier to align their trading strategies with the overall trend.
- **Performance Benchmarking:**
- The percentage change metrics provide a clear benchmark for an asset’s performance over time. This information can be used to compare the asset against broader market indices or other assets, helping traders make more informed decisions about where to allocate their capital.
4. **Custom Strategy Development:**
- **Tailoring to Specific Markets:**
- TFT can be customized to suit different markets, whether it’s stocks, forex, commodities, or cryptocurrencies. For instance, traders in volatile markets may opt for shorter lookback periods and more sensitive RSI settings, while those in stable markets may prefer longer periods for a smoother analysis.
- **Integrating with Other Indicators:**
- TFT can be used alongside other technical indicators to create a more comprehensive trading strategy. For example, combining TFT with moving averages, Bollinger Bands, or MACD can provide additional layers of confirmation and reduce the likelihood of false signals.
#### **Best Practices for Using TFT**
- **Regularly Adjust Lookback Periods:**
- Depending on the market conditions and the asset being traded, it’s important to regularly review and adjust the lookback periods for the performance metrics. This ensures that the indicator remains relevant and responsive to current market trends.
- **Combine with Volume Analysis:**
- While TFT provides a solid foundation for trend and sentiment analysis, combining it with volume indicators can further enhance its effectiveness. Volume can confirm the strength of a trend or signal potential reversals when divergences occur.
- **Use RSI with Other Momentum Indicators:**
- Although RSI is a powerful tool on its own, using it alongside other momentum indicators like Stochastic Oscillator or MACD can provide additional confirmation and help refine entry and exit points.
- **Customize Table Settings for Clarity:**
- Ensure that the performance table is positioned and sized appropriately on the chart. It should be easily readable without obstructing important price data. Adjust the text size and colors as needed to maintain clarity.
- **Monitor Multiple Timeframes:**
- Utilize the multi-timeframe analysis feature of TFT to monitor trends across different periods. This helps in identifying the dominant trend and avoiding trades that go against the broader market direction.
#### **Conclusion**
The **Uptrick: TimeFrame Trends: Performance & Sentiment Indicator (TFT)** is a comprehensive and versatile tool that combines the power of multi-timeframe performance analysis with sentiment gauging through RSI. Its ability to customize and adapt to various trading strategies and markets makes it a valuable asset for traders at all levels. By offering a clear visual representation of trends and market sentiment, TFT empowers traders to make more informed and confident trading decisions, whether they are focusing on short-term price movements or long-term investment opportunities. With its deep integration of performance metrics and sentiment analysis, TFT stands out as a must-have indicator for any trader looking to gain a holistic understanding of market dynamics.
Uptrick: Volume-Weighted EMA Signal### **Uptrick: Volume-Weighted EMA Signal (UVES) Indicator - Comprehensive Description**
#### **Overview**
The **Uptrick: Volume-Weighted EMA Signal (UVES)** is an advanced, multifaceted trading indicator meticulously designed to provide traders with a holistic view of market trends by integrating Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) with volume analysis. This indicator not only identifies the direction of market trends through dynamic EMAs but also evaluates the underlying strength of these trends using real-time volume data. UVES is a versatile tool suitable for various trading styles and markets, offering a high degree of customization to meet the specific needs of individual traders.
#### **Purpose**
The UVES indicator aims to enhance traditional trend-following strategies by incorporating a critical yet often overlooked component: volume. Volume is a powerful indicator of market strength, providing insights into the conviction behind price movements. By merging EMA-based trend signals with detailed volume analysis, UVES offers a more nuanced and reliable approach to identifying trading opportunities. This dual-layer analysis allows traders to differentiate between strong trends supported by significant volume and weaker trends that may be prone to reversals.
#### **Key Features and Functions**
1. **Dynamic Exponential Moving Average (EMA):**
- The core of the UVES indicator is its dynamic EMA, calculated over a customizable period. The EMA is a widely used technical indicator that smooths price data to identify the underlying trend. In UVES, the EMA is dynamically colored—green when the current EMA value is above the previous value, indicating an uptrend, and red when below, signaling a downtrend. This visual cue helps traders quickly assess the trend direction without manually calculating or interpreting raw data.
2. **Comprehensive Moving Average Customization:**
- While the EMA is the default moving average in UVES, traders can select from various other moving average types, including Simple Moving Average (SMA), Smoothed Moving Average (SMMA), Weighted Moving Average (WMA), and Volume-Weighted Moving Average (VWMA). Each type offers unique characteristics:
- **SMA:** Provides a simple average of prices over a specified period, suitable for identifying long-term trends.
- **EMA:** Gives more weight to recent prices, making it more responsive to recent market movements.
- **SMMA (RMA):** A slower-moving average that reduces noise, ideal for capturing smoother trends.
- **WMA:** Weighs prices based on their order in the dataset, making recent prices more influential.
- **VWMA:** Integrates volume data, emphasizing price movements that occur with higher volume, making it particularly useful in volume-sensitive markets.
3. **Signal Line for Trend Confirmation:**
- UVES includes an optional signal line, which applies a secondary moving average to the primary EMA. This signal line can be used to smooth out the EMA and confirm trend changes. The signal line’s color changes based on its slope—green for an upward slope and red for a downward slope—providing a clear visual confirmation of trend direction. Traders can adjust the length and type of this signal line, allowing them to tailor the indicator’s responsiveness to their trading strategy.
4. **Buy and Sell Signal Generation:**
- UVES generates explicit buy and sell signals based on the interaction between the EMA and the signal line. A **buy signal** is triggered when the EMA transitions from a red (downtrend) to a green (uptrend), indicating a potential entry point. Conversely, a **sell signal** is triggered when the EMA shifts from green to red, suggesting an exit or shorting opportunity. These signals are displayed directly on the chart as upward or downward arrows, making them easily identifiable even during fast market conditions.
5. **Volume Analysis with Real-Time Buy/Sell Volume Table:**
- One of the standout features of UVES is its integration of volume analysis, which calculates and displays the volume attributed to buying and selling activities. This analysis includes:
- **Buy Volume:** The portion of the total volume associated with price increases (close higher than open).
- **Sell Volume:** The portion of the total volume associated with price decreases (close lower than open).
- **Buy/Sell Ratio:** A ratio of buy volume to sell volume, providing a quick snapshot of market sentiment.
- These metrics are presented in a real-time table positioned in the top-right corner of the chart, with customizable colors and formatting. The table updates with each new bar, offering continuous feedback on the strength and direction of the market trend based on volume data.
6. **Customizable Settings and User Control:**
- **EMA Length and Source:** Traders can specify the lookback period for the EMA, adjusting its sensitivity to price changes. The source for EMA calculations can also be customized, with options such as close, open, high, low, or other custom price series.
- **Signal Line Customization:** The signal line’s length, type, and width can be adjusted to suit different trading strategies, allowing traders to optimize the balance between trend detection and noise reduction.
- **Offset Adjustment:** The offset feature allows users to shift the EMA and signal line forward or backward on the chart. This can help align the indicator with specific price action or adjust for latency in decision-making processes.
- **Volume Table Positioning and Formatting:** The position, size, and color scheme of the volume table are fully customizable, enabling traders to integrate the table seamlessly into their chart setup without cluttering the visual workspace.
7. **Versatility Across Markets and Trading Styles:**
- UVES is designed to be effective across a wide range of financial markets, including Forex, stocks, cryptocurrencies, commodities, and indices. Its adaptability to different markets is supported by its comprehensive customization options and the inclusion of volume analysis, which is particularly valuable in markets where volume plays a crucial role in price movement.
#### **How Different Traders Can Benefit from UVES**
1. **Trend Followers:**
- Trend-following traders will find UVES particularly beneficial for identifying and riding trends. The dynamic EMA and signal line provide clear visual cues for trend direction, while the volume analysis helps confirm the strength of these trends. This combination allows trend followers to stay in profitable trades longer and exit when the trend shows signs of weakening.
2. **Volume-Based Traders:**
- Traders who focus on volume as a key indicator of market strength can leverage the UVES volume table to gain insights into the buying and selling pressure behind price movements. By monitoring the buy/sell ratio, these traders can identify periods of strong conviction (high buy volume) or potential reversals (high sell volume) with greater accuracy.
3. **Scalpers and Day Traders:**
- For traders operating on shorter time frames, UVES provides quick and reliable signals that are essential for making rapid trading decisions. The ability to customize the EMA length and type allows scalpers to fine-tune the indicator for responsiveness, while the volume analysis offers an additional layer of confirmation to avoid false signals.
4. **Swing Traders:**
- Swing traders, who typically hold positions for several days to weeks, can use UVES to identify medium-term trends and potential entry and exit points. The indicator’s ability to filter out market noise through the signal line and volume analysis makes it ideal for capturing significant price movements without being misled by short-term volatility.
5. **Position Traders and Long-Term Investors:**
- Even long-term investors can benefit from UVES by using it to identify major trend reversals or confirm the strength of long-term trends. The flexibility to adjust the EMA and signal line to longer periods ensures that the indicator remains relevant for detecting shifts in market sentiment over extended time frames.
#### **Optimal Settings for Different Markets**
- **Forex Markets:**
- **EMA Length:** 9 to 14 periods.
- **Signal Line:** Use VWMA or WMA for the signal line to incorporate volume data, which is crucial in the highly liquid Forex markets.
- **Best Use:** Short-term trend following, with an emphasis on identifying rapid changes in market sentiment.
- **Stock Markets:**
- **EMA Length:** 20 to 50 periods.
- **Signal Line:** SMA or EMA with a slightly longer length (e.g., 50 periods) to capture broader market trends.
- **Best Use:** Medium to long-term trend identification, with volume analysis confirming the strength of institutional buying or selling.
- **Cryptocurrency Markets:**
- **EMA Length:** 9 to 12 periods, due to the high volatility in crypto markets.
- **Signal Line:** SMMA or EMA for smoothing out extreme price fluctuations.
- **Best Use:** Identifying entry and exit points in volatile markets, with the volume table providing insights into market manipulation or sudden shifts in trader sentiment.
- **Commodity Markets:**
- **EMA Length:** 14 to 21 periods.
- **Signal Line:** WMA or VWMA, considering the impact of trading volume on commodity prices.
- **Best Use:** Capturing medium-term price movements and confirming trend strength with volume data.
#### **Customization for Advanced Users**
- **Advanced Offset Usage:** Traders can experiment with different offset values to see how shifting the EMA and signal line impacts the timing of buy/sell signals. This can be particularly useful in markets with known latency or for strategies that require a delayed confirmation of trend changes.
- **Volume Table Integration:** The position, size, and colors of the volume table can be adjusted to fit seamlessly into any trading setup. For example, a trader might choose to position the table in the bottom-right corner and use a smaller size to keep the focus on price action while still having access to volume data.
- **Signal Filtering:** By combining the signal line with the primary EMA, traders can filter out false signals during periods of low volatility or when the market is range-bound. Adjusting the length of the signal line allows for greater control over the sensitivity of the trend detection.
#### **Conclusion**
The **Uptrick: Volume-Weighted EMA Signal (UVES)** is a powerful and adaptable indicator designed for traders who demand more from their technical analysis tools. By integrating dynamic EMA trend signals with real-time volume analysis, UVES offers a comprehensive view of market conditions, making it an invaluable resource for identifying trends, confirming signals, and understanding market sentiment. Whether you are a day trader, swing trader, or long-term investor, UVES provides the versatility, precision, and customization needed to make more informed and profitable trading decisions. With its ability to adapt to various markets and trading styles, UVES is not just an indicator but a complete trend analysis solution.
ChartUtilsLibrary "ChartUtils"
Library for chart utilities, including managing tables
initTable(rows, cols, bgcolor)
Initializes a table with specific dimensions and color
Parameters:
rows (int) : (int) Number of rows in the table
cols (int) : (int) Number of columns in the table
bgcolor (color) : (color) Background color of the table
Returns: (table) The initialized table
updateTable(tbl, is_price_below_avg, current_investment_USD, strategy_position_size, strategy_position_avg_price, strategy_openprofit, strategy_opentrades, isBullishRate, isBearishRate, mlRSIOverSold, mlRSIOverBought)
Updates the trading table
Parameters:
tbl (table) : (table) The table to update
is_price_below_avg (bool) : (bool) If the current price is below the average price
current_investment_USD (float) : (float) The current investment in USD
strategy_position_size (float) : (float) The size of the current position
strategy_position_avg_price (float) : (float) The average price of the current position
strategy_openprofit (float) : (float) The current open profit
strategy_opentrades (int) : (int) The number of open trades
isBullishRate (bool) : (bool) If the current rate is bullish
isBearishRate (bool) : (bool) If the current rate is bearish
mlRSIOverSold (bool) : (bool) If the ML RSI is oversold
mlRSIOverBought (bool) : (bool) If the ML RSI is overbought
updateTableNoPosition(tbl)
Updates the table when there is no position
Parameters:
tbl (table) : (table) The table to update
Price Cross Time Custom Range Interactive█ OVERVIEW
This indicator was a time-based indicator and intended as educational purpose only based on pine script v5 functions for ta.cross() , ta.crossover() and ta.crossunder() .
I realised that there is some overlap price with the cross functions, hence I integrate them into Custom Range Interactive with value variance and overlap displayed into table.
This was my submission for Pinefest #1 , I decided to share this as public, I may accidentally delete this as long as i keep as private.
█ INSPIRATION
Inspired by design, code and usage of CAGR. Basic usage of custom range / interactive, pretty much explained here . Credits to TradingView.
█ FEATURES
1. Custom Range Interactive
2. Label can be resize and change color.
3. Label show tooltip for price and time.
4. Label can be offset to improve readability.
5. Table can show price variance when any cross is true.
6. Table can show overlap if found crosss is overlap either with crossover and crossunder.
7. Table text color automatically change based on chart background (light / dark mode).
8. Source 2 is drawn as straight line, while Source 1 will draw as label either above line for crossover, below line for crossunder and marked 'X' if crossing with Source 2's line.
9. Cross 'X' label can be offset to improve readability.
10. Both Source 1 and Source 2 can select Open, Close, High and Low, which can be displayed into table.
█ LIMITATIONS
1. Table is limited to intraday timeframe only as time format is not accurate for daily timeframe and above. Example daily timeframe will give result less 1 day from actual date.
2. I did not include other sources such external source or any built in sources such as hl2, hlc3, ohlc4 and hlcc4.
█ CODE EXPLAINATION
I pretty much create custom function with method which returns tuple value.
method crossVariant(float price = na, chart.point ref = na) =>
cross = ta.cross( price, ref.price)
over = ta.crossover( price, ref.price)
under = ta.crossunder(price, ref.price)
Unfortunately, I unable make the labels into array which i plan to return string value by getting the text value from array label, hence i use label.all and add incremental int value as reference.
series label labelCross = na, labelCross.delete()
var int num = 0
if over
num += 1
labelCross := label.new()
if under
num += 1
labelCross := label.new()
if cross
num += 1
labelCross := label.new()
I realised cross value can be overlap with crossover and crossunder, hence I add bool to enable force overlap and add additional bools.
series label labelCross = na, labelCross.delete()
var int num = 0
if forceOverlap
if over
num += 1
labelCross := label.new()
if under
num += 1
labelCross := label.new()
if cross
num += 1
labelCross := label.new()
else
if cross and over
num += 1
labelCross := label.new()
if cross and under
num += 1
labelCross := label.new()
if cross and not over and not under
num += 1
labelCross := label.new()
█ USAGE / EXAMPLES
Major and Minor Trend Indicator by Nikhil34a V 2.2Title: Major and Minor Trend Indicator by Nikhil34a V 2.2
Description:
The Major and Minor Trend Indicator v2.2 is a comprehensive technical analysis script designed for use with the TradingView platform. This powerful tool is developed in Pine Script version 5 and helps traders identify potential buying and selling opportunities in the stock market.
Features:
SMA Trend Analysis: The script calculates two Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) with user-defined lengths for major and minor trends. It displays these SMAs on the chart, allowing traders to visualize the prevailing trends easily.
Surge Detection: The indicator can detect buying and selling surges based on specific conditions, such as volume, RSI, MACD, and stochastic indicators. Both Buying and Selling surges are marked in black on the chart.
Option Buy Zone Detection: The script identifies the option buy zone based on SMA crossovers, RSI, and MACD values. The buy zone is categorized as "CE Zone" or "PE Zone" and displayed in the table along with the trigger time.
Two-Day High and Low Range: The script calculates the highest high and lowest low of the previous two trading days and plots them on the chart. The area between these points is shaded in semi-transparent green and red colors.
Crossover Analysis: The script analyzes moving average crossovers on multiple timeframes (2-minute, 3-minute, and 5-minute) and displays buy and sell signals accordingly.
Trend Identification: The script identifies the major and minor trends as either bullish or bearish, providing valuable insights into the overall market sentiment.
Usage:
Customize Major and Minor SMA Periods: Adjust the lengths of major and minor SMAs through input parameters to suit your trading preferences.
Enable/Disable Moving Averages: Choose which SMAs to display on the chart by toggling the "showXMA" input options.
Set Surge and Option Buy Zone Thresholds: Modify the surgeThreshold, volumeThreshold, RSIThreshold, and StochThreshold inputs to refine the surge and buy zone detection.
Analyze Crossover Signals: Monitor the crossover signals in the table, categorized by timeframes (2-minute, 3-minute, and 5-minute).
Explore Market Bias and Distance to 2-Day High/Low: The table provides information on market bias, current price movement relative to the previous two-day high and low, and the option buy zone status.
Additional Use Cases:
Surge Indicator:
The script includes a Surge Indicator that detects sudden buying or selling surges in the market. When a buying surge is identified, the "BSurge" label will appear below the corresponding candle with black text on a white background. Similarly, a selling surge will display the "SSurge" label in white text on a black background. These indicators help traders quickly spot strong buying or selling activities that may influence their trading decisions. These surges can be used to identify sudden premium dump zones.
Option Buy Zone:
The Option Buy Zone is an essential feature that identifies potential zones for buying call options (CE Zone) or put options (PE Zone) based on specific technical conditions. The indicator evaluates SMA crossovers, RSI, and MACD values to determine the current market sentiment. When the option buy zone is triggered, the script will display the respective zone ("CE Zone" or "PE Zone") in the table, highlighted with a white background. Additionally, the time when the buy zone was triggered will be shown under the "Option Buy Zone Trigger Time" column.
Price Movement Relative to 2-Day High/Low:
The script calculates the highest high and lowest low of the previous two trading days (high2DaysAgo and low2DaysAgo) and plots these points on the chart. The area between these two points is shaded in semi-transparent green and red colors. The green region indicates the price range between the highpricetoconsider (highest high of the previous two days) and the lower value between highPreviousDay and high2DaysAgo. Similarly, the red region represents the price range between the lowpricetoconsider (lowest low of the previous two days) and the higher value between lowPreviousDay and low2DaysAgo.
Entry Time and Current Zone:
The script identifies potential entry times for trades within the option buy zone. When a valid buy zone trigger occurs, the script calculates the entryTime by adding the durationInMinutes (user-defined) to the startTime. The entryTime will be displayed in the "Entry Time" column of the table. Depending on the comparison between optionbuyzonetriggertime and entryTime, the background color of the entry time will change. If optionbuyzonetriggertime is greater than entryTime, the background color will be yellow, indicating that a new trigger has occurred before the specified duration. Otherwise, the background color will be green, suggesting that the entry time is still within the defined duration.
Current Zone Indicator:
The script further categorizes the current zone as either "CE Zone" (call option zone) or "PE Zone" (put option zone). When the market is trending upwards and the minor SMA is above the major SMA, the currentZone will be set to "CE Zone." Conversely, when the market is trending downwards and the minor SMA is below the major SMA, the currentZone will be "PE Zone." This information is displayed in the "Current Zone" column of the table.
These additional use cases empower traders with valuable insights into market trends, buying and selling surges, option buy zones, and potential entry times. Traders can combine this information with their analysis and risk management strategies to make informed and confident trading decisions.
Note:
The script is optimized for identifying trends and potential trade opportunities. It is crucial to perform additional analysis and risk management before executing any trades based on the provided signals.
Happy Trading!
LNL Smart TICKLNL Smart TICK
This study is mostly beneficial for intraday traders. It is basically a user-friendly "colorful" representation of the $TICK chart with highlighted $TICK extremes. This indicator also includes: a simple trend gauge that can visualize the bias for the day, cumulative tick cloud which is showing the cumulative strength of either longs & shorts on the day.
$TICK Trend Gauge
Although it is just a exponential moving average. This average (default set on 20) works quite well as an overall gauge for the day. Whenever the gauge is green (above zero), any negative $TICK values below -500 can offer great pullback opportunities. Same applies for the red gauge. 20 EMA is below zero ? Great time to fade any +500 or +1000 tick readings. Obviously the gauge can be ajdusted to any number based on personal style.
$TICK Extremes (little triangles)
These little triangles are triggered anytime $TICK jumps above or below the pre-set values of +1000 or -1000. By just simply observing the $TICK triangles during the day can tell you how much volaility or pressure there is. Sometimes there will be 20 green triangles and only 2 red ones. That obviously mean there is a strong bearish pressure. But there will be days when you are not going to see any triangles at all which can mean there is either a low volatility or the price is stuck in the indecisive market.
Cumulative $TICK Cloud
Cumulative $TICK by itself is a great study for day traders. It is basically running "counting" $TICK that is adding the previous $TICK values from previous bars. Cumulative $TICK can create a direct picture of the current market sentiment. It is not just a simple green / red line but a cloud that can really show you the depth on the $TICK. Some days, the cloud will be quite wide which is a good sign for the strength to one side, but sometimes the cloud will be so narrow it will practically disappear. This would be telling you the exact opposite - not much conviction to any side. Of course the depth as well as the color of the cloud can change during the day.
$TICK & Cumulative $TICK Tables
By just looking at these tables. You can immidiately tell the state of the current $TICK. They both can be red or green. It all depends whether the values are positive or negative. The tables are just a little visual addition to the whole $TICK study.
Hope it helps.
Swing Counter [theEccentricTrader]█ OVERVIEW
This indicator counts the number of confirmed swing high and swing low scenarios on any given candlestick chart and displays the statistics in a table, which can be repositioned and resized at the user's discretion.
█ CONCEPTS
Green and Red Candles
• A green candle is one that closes with a high price equal to or above the price it opened.
• A red candle is one that closes with a low price that is lower than the price it opened.
Swing Highs and Swing Lows
• A swing high is a green candle or series of consecutive green candles followed by a single red candle to complete the swing and form the peak.
• A swing low is a red candle or series of consecutive red candles followed by a single green candle to complete the swing and form the trough.
Peak and Trough Prices (Basic)
• The peak price of a complete swing high is the high price of either the red candle that completes the swing high or the high price of the preceding green candle, depending on which is higher.
• The trough price of a complete swing low is the low price of either the green candle that completes the swing low or the low price of the preceding red candle, depending on which is lower.
Peak and Trough Prices (Advanced)
• The advanced peak price of a complete swing high is the high price of either the red candle that completes the swing high or the high price of the highest preceding green candle high price, depending on which is higher.
• The advanced trough price of a complete swing low is the low price of either the green candle that completes the swing low or the low price of the lowest preceding red candle low price, depending on which is lower.
Green and Red Peaks and Troughs
• A green peak is one that derives its price from the green candle/s that constitute the swing high.
• A red peak is one that derives its price from the red candle that completes the swing high.
• A green trough is one that derives its price from the green candle that completes the swing low.
• A red trough is one that derives its price from the red candle/s that constitute the swing low.
Historic Peaks and Troughs
The current, or most recent, peak and trough occurrences are referred to as occurrence zero. Previous peak and trough occurrences are referred to as historic and ordered numerically from right to left, with the most recent historic peak and trough occurrences being occurrence one.
Upper Trends
• A return line uptrend is formed when the current peak price is higher than the preceding peak price.
• A downtrend is formed when the current peak price is lower than the preceding peak price.
• A double-top is formed when the current peak price is equal to the preceding peak price.
Lower Trends
• An uptrend is formed when the current trough price is higher than the preceding trough price.
• A return line downtrend is formed when the current trough price is lower than the preceding trough price.
• A double-bottom is formed when the current trough price is equal to the preceding trough price.
█ FEATURES
Inputs
• Start Date
• End Date
• Position
• Text Size
• Show Sample Period
• Show Plots
• Show Lines
Table
The table is colour coded, consists of three columns and nine rows. Blue cells denote neutral scenarios, green cells denote return line uptrend and uptrend scenarios, and red cells denote downtrend and return line downtrend scenarios.
The swing scenarios are listed in the first column with their corresponding total counts to the right, in the second column. The last row in column one, row nine, displays the sample period which can be adjusted or hidden via indicator settings.
Rows three and four in the third column of the table display the total higher peaks and higher troughs as percentages of total peaks and troughs, respectively. Rows five and six in the third column display the total lower peaks and lower troughs as percentages of total peaks and troughs, respectively. And rows seven and eight display the total double-top peaks and double-bottom troughs as percentages of total peaks and troughs, respectively.
Plots
I have added plots as a visual aid to the swing scenarios listed in the table. Green up-arrows with ‘HP’ denote higher peaks, while green up-arrows with ‘HT’ denote higher troughs. Red down-arrows with ‘LP’ denote higher peaks, while red down-arrows with ‘LT’ denote lower troughs. Similarly, blue diamonds with ‘DT’ denote double-top peaks and blue diamonds with ‘DB’ denote double-bottom troughs. These plots can be hidden via indicator settings.
Lines
I have also added green and red trendlines as a further visual aid to the swing scenarios listed in the table. Green lines denote return line uptrends (higher peaks) and uptrends (higher troughs), while red lines denote downtrends (lower peaks) and return line downtrends (lower troughs). These lines can be hidden via indicator settings.
█ HOW TO USE
This indicator is intended for research purposes and strategy development. I hope it will be useful in helping to gain a better understanding of the underlying dynamics at play on any given market and timeframe. It can, for example, give you an idea of any inherent biases such as a greater proportion of higher peaks to lower peaks. Or a greater proportion of higher troughs to lower troughs. Such information can be very useful when conducting top down analysis across multiple timeframes, or considering entry and exit methods.
What I find most fascinating about this logic, is that the number of swing highs and swing lows will always find equilibrium on each new complete wave cycle. If for example the chart begins with a swing high and ends with a swing low there will be an equal number of swing highs to swing lows. If the chart starts with a swing high and ends with a swing high there will be a difference of one between the two total values until another swing low is formed to complete the wave cycle sequence that began at start of the chart. Almost as if it was a fundamental truth of price action, although quite common sensical in many respects. As they say, what goes up must come down.
The objective logic for swing highs and swing lows I hope will form somewhat of a foundational building block for traders, researchers and developers alike. Not only does it facilitate the objective study of swing highs and swing lows it also facilitates that of ranges, trends, double trends, multi-part trends and patterns. The logic can also be used for objective anchor points. Concepts I will introduce and develop further in future publications.
█ LIMITATIONS
Some higher timeframe candles on tickers with larger lookbacks such as the DXY , do not actually contain all the open, high, low and close (OHLC) data at the beginning of the chart. Instead, they use the close price for open, high and low prices. So, while we can determine whether the close price is higher or lower than the preceding close price, there is no way of knowing what actually happened intra-bar for these candles. And by default candles that close at the same price as the open price, will be counted as green. You can avoid this problem by utilising the sample period filter.
The green and red candle calculations are based solely on differences between open and close prices, as such I have made no attempt to account for green candles that gap lower and close below the close price of the preceding candle, or red candles that gap higher and close above the close price of the preceding candle. I can only recommend using 24-hour markets, if and where possible, as there are far fewer gaps and, generally, more data to work with. Alternatively, you can replace the scenarios with your own logic to account for the gap anomalies, if you are feeling up to the challenge.
The sample size will be limited to your Trading View subscription plan. Premium users get 20,000 candles worth of data, pro+ and pro users get 10,000, and basic users get 5,000. If upgrading is currently not an option, you can always keep a rolling tally of the statistics in an excel spreadsheet or something of the like.
█ NOTES
I feel it important to address the mention of advanced peak and trough price logic. While I have introduced the concept, I have not included the logic in my script for a number of reasons. The most pertinent of which being the amount of extra work I would have to do to include it in a public release versus the actual difference it would make to the statistics. Based on my experience, there are actually only a small number of cases where the advanced peak and trough prices are different from the basic peak and trough prices. And with adequate multi-timeframe analysis any high or low prices that are not captured using basic peak and trough price logic on any given time frame, will no doubt be captured on a higher timeframe. See the example below on the 1H FOREXCOM:USDJPY chart (Figure 1), where the basic peak price logic denoted by the indicator plot does not capture what would be the advanced peak price, but on the 2H FOREXCOM:USDJPY chart (Figure 2), the basic peak logic does capture the advanced peak price from the 1H timeframe.
Figure 1.
Figure 2.
█ RAMBLINGS
“Never was there an age that placed economic interests higher than does our own. Never was the need of a scientific foundation for economic affairs felt more generally or more acutely. And never was the ability of practical men to utilize the achievements of science, in all fields of human activity, greater than in our day. If practical men, therefore, rely wholly on their own experience, and disregard our science in its present state of development, it cannot be due to a lack of serious interest or ability on their part. Nor can their disregard be the result of a haughty rejection of the deeper insight a true science would give into the circumstances and relationships determining the outcome of their activity. The cause of such remarkable indifference must not be sought elsewhere than in the present state of our science itself, in the sterility of all past endeavours to find its empirical foundations.” (Menger, 1871, p.45).
█ BIBLIOGRAPHY
Menger, C. (1871) Principles of Economics. Reprint, Auburn, Alabama: Ludwig Von Mises Institute: 2007.
Tape [LucF]█ OVERVIEW
This script prints an ersatz of a trading console's "tape" section to the right of your chart. It displays the time, price and volume of each update of the chart's feed. It also calculates volume delta for the bar. As it calculates from realtime information, it will not display information on historical bars.
█ FEATURES
Calculations
Each new line in the tape displays the last price/volume update from the TradingView feed that's building your chart. These updates do not necessarily correspond to ticks from the originating broker/exchange's matching engine. Multiple broker/exchange ticks are often aggregated in one chart update.
The script first determines if price has moved up or down since the last update. The polarity of the price change, in turn, determines the polarity of the volume for that specific update. If price does not move between consecutive updates, then the last known polarity is used. Using this method, we can calculate a running volume delta accumulation for the bar, which becomes the bar's final volume delta value when the bar closes (you can inspect values of elapsed realtime bars in the Data Window or the indicator's values). Note that these values will all reset if the script re-executes because of a change in inputs or a chart refresh.
While this method of calculating volume delta is not perfect, it is currently the most precise way of calculating volume delta available on TradingView at the moment. Calculating more precise results would require scripts to have access to bid/ask levels from any chart timeframe. Charts at seconds timeframes do use exchange/broker ticks when the feeds you are using allow for it, and this indicator will run on them, but tick data is not yet available from higher timeframes, for now. Also note that the method used in this script is far superior to the intrabar inspection technique used on historical bars in my other "Delta Volume" indicators. This is because volume delta here is calculated from many more realtime updates than the available intrabars in history.
Inputs
You can use the script's inputs to configure:
• The number of lines displayed in the tape.
• If new lines appear at the top or bottom.
• If you want to hide lines with low volume.
• The precision of volume values.
• The size of the text and the colors used to highlight either the tape's text or background.
• The position where you want the tape on your chart.
• Conditions triggering three different markers.
Display
Deltas are shown at the bottom of the tape. They are reset on each bar. Time delta displays the time elapsed since the beginning of the bar, on intraday timeframes only. Contrary to the price change display by TradingView at the top left of charts, which is calculated from the close of the previous bar, the price delta in the tape is calculated from the bar's open, because that's the information used in the calculation of volume delta. The time will become orange when volume delta's polarity diverges from that of the bar. The volume delta value represents the current, cumulative value for the bar. Its color reflects its polarity.
When new realtime bars appear on the chart, a ↻ symbol will appear before the volume value in tape lines.
Markers
There are three types of markers you can choose to display:
• Marker 1 on volume bumps. A bump is defined as two consecutive and increasing/decreasing plus/minus delta volume values,
when no divergence between the polarity of delta volume and the bar occurs on the second bar.
• Marker 2 on volume delta for the bar exceeding a limit of your choice when there is no divergence between the polarity of delta volume and the bar. These trigger at the bar's close.
• Marker 3 on tape lines with volume exceeding a threshold. These trigger in realtime. Be sure to set a threshold high enough so that it doesn't generate too many alerts.
These markers will only display briefly under the bar, but another marker appears next to the relevant line in the tape.
The marker conditions are used to trigger alerts configured on the script. Alert messages will mention the marker(s) that triggered the specific alert event, along with the relevant volume value that triggered the marker. If more than one marker triggers a single alert, they will overprint under the bar, which can make it difficult to distinguish them.
For more detailed on-chart analysis of realtime volume delta, see my Delta Volume Realtime Action .
█ NOTES FOR CODERS
This script showcases two new Pine features:
• Tables, which allow Pine programmers to display tabular information in fixed locations of the chart. The tape uses this feature.
See the Pine User Manual's page on Tables for more information.
• varip -type variables which we can use to save values between realtime updates.
See the " Using `varip` variables " publication by PineCoders for more information.
Scientific Correlation Testing FrameworkScientific Correlation Testing Framework - Comprehensive Guide
Introduction to Correlation Analysis
What is Correlation?
Correlation is a statistical measure that describes the degree to which two assets move in relation to each other. Think of it like measuring how closely two dancers move together on a dance floor.
Perfect Positive Correlation (+1.0): Both dancers move in perfect sync, same direction, same speed
Perfect Negative Correlation (-1.0): Both dancers move in perfect sync but in opposite directions
Zero Correlation (0): The dancers move completely independently of each other
In financial markets, correlation helps us understand relationships between different assets, which is crucial for:
Portfolio diversification
Risk management
Pairs trading strategies
Hedging positions
Market analysis
Why This Script is Special
This script goes beyond simple correlation calculations by providing:
Two different correlation methods (Pearson and Spearman)
Statistical significance testing to ensure results are meaningful
Rolling correlation analysis to track how relationships change over time
Visual representation for easy interpretation
Comprehensive statistics table with detailed metrics
Deep Dive into the Script's Components
1. Input Parameters Explained-
Symbol Selection:
This allows you to select the second asset to compare with the chart's primary asset
Default is Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL), but you can change this to any symbol
Example: If you're viewing a Bitcoin chart, you might set this to "NASDAQ:TSLA" to see if Bitcoin and Tesla are correlated
Correlation Window (60): This is the number of periods used to calculate the main correlation
Larger values (e.g., 100-500) provide more stable, long-term correlation measures
Smaller values (e.g., 10-50) are more responsive to recent price movements
60 is a good balance for most daily charts (about 3 months of trading days)
Rolling Correlation Window (20): A shorter window to detect recent changes in correlation
This helps identify when the relationship between assets is strengthening or weakening
Default of 20 is roughly one month of trading days
Return Type: This determines how price changes are calculated
Simple Returns: (Today's Price - Yesterday's Price) / Yesterday's Price
Easy to understand: "The asset went up 2% today"
Log Returns: Natural logarithm of (Today's Price / Yesterday's Price)
More mathematically elegant for statistical analysis
Better for time-additive properties (returns over multiple periods)
Less sensitive to extreme values.
Confidence Level (95%): This determines how certain we want to be about our results
95% confidence means we accept a 5% chance of being wrong (false positive)
Higher confidence (e.g., 99%) makes the test more strict
Lower confidence (e.g., 90%) makes the test more lenient
95% is the standard in most scientific research
Show Statistical Significance: When enabled, the script will test if the correlation is statistically significant or just due to random chance.
Display options control what you see on the chart:
Show Pearson/Spearman/Rolling Correlation: Toggle each correlation type on/off
Show Scatter Plot: Displays a scatter plot of returns (limited to recent points to avoid performance issues)
Show Statistical Tests: Enables the detailed statistics table
Table Text Size: Adjusts the size of text in the statistics table
2.Functions explained-
calcReturns():
This function calculates price returns based on your selected method:
Log Returns:
Formula: ln(Price_t / Price_t-1)
Example: If a stock goes from $100 to $101, the log return is ln(101/100) = ln(1.01) ≈ 0.00995 or 0.995%
Benefits: More symmetric, time-additive, and better for statistical modeling
Simple Returns:
Formula: (Price_t - Price_t-1) / Price_t-1
Example: If a stock goes from $100 to $101, the simple return is (101-100)/100 = 0.01 or 1%
Benefits: More intuitive and easier to understand
rankArray():
This function calculates the rank of each value in an array, which is used for Spearman correlation:
How ranking works:
The smallest value gets rank 1
The second smallest gets rank 2, and so on
For ties (equal values), they get the average of their ranks
Example: For values
Sorted:
Ranks: (the two 2s tie for ranks 1 and 2, so they both get 1.5)
Why this matters: Spearman correlation uses ranks instead of actual values, making it less sensitive to outliers and non-linear relationships.
pearsonCorr():
This function calculates the Pearson correlation coefficient:
Mathematical Formula:
r = (nΣxy - ΣxΣy) / √
Where x and y are the two variables, and n is the sample size
What it measures:
The strength and direction of the linear relationship between two variables
Values range from -1 (perfect negative linear relationship) to +1 (perfect positive linear relationship)
0 indicates no linear relationship
Example:
If two stocks have a Pearson correlation of 0.8, they have a strong positive linear relationship
When one stock goes up, the other tends to go up in a fairly consistent proportion
spearmanCorr():
This function calculates the Spearman rank correlation:
How it works:
Convert each value in both datasets to its rank
Calculate the Pearson correlation on the ranks instead of the original values
What it measures:
The strength and direction of the monotonic relationship between two variables
A monotonic relationship is one where as one variable increases, the other either consistently increases or decreases
It doesn't require the relationship to be linear
When to use it instead of Pearson:
When the relationship is monotonic but not linear
When there are significant outliers in the data
When the data is ordinal (ranked) rather than interval/ratio
Example:
If two stocks have a Spearman correlation of 0.7, they have a strong positive monotonic relationship
When one stock goes up, the other tends to go up, but not necessarily in a straight-line relationship
tStatistic():
This function calculates the t-statistic for correlation:
Mathematical Formula: t = r × √((n-2)/(1-r²))
Where r is the correlation coefficient and n is the sample size
What it measures:
How many standard errors the correlation is away from zero
Used to test the null hypothesis that the true correlation is zero
Interpretation:
Larger absolute t-values indicate stronger evidence against the null hypothesis
Generally, a t-value greater than 2 (in absolute terms) is considered statistically significant at the 95% confidence level
criticalT() and pValue():
These functions provide approximations for statistical significance testing:
criticalT():
Returns the critical t-value for a given degrees of freedom (df) and significance level
The critical value is the threshold that the t-statistic must exceed to be considered statistically significant
Uses approximations since Pine Script doesn't have built-in statistical distribution functions
pValue():
Estimates the p-value for a given t-statistic and degrees of freedom
The p-value is the probability of observing a correlation as strong as the one calculated, assuming the true correlation is zero
Smaller p-values indicate stronger evidence against the null hypothesis
Standard interpretation:
p < 0.01: Very strong evidence (marked with **)
p < 0.05: Strong evidence (marked with *)
p ≥ 0.05: Weak evidence, not statistically significant
stdev():
This function calculates the standard deviation of a dataset:
Mathematical Formula: σ = √(Σ(x-μ)²/(n-1))
Where x is each value, μ is the mean, and n is the sample size
What it measures:
The amount of variation or dispersion in a set of values
A low standard deviation indicates that the values tend to be close to the mean
A high standard deviation indicates that the values are spread out over a wider range
Why it matters for correlation:
Standard deviation is used in calculating the correlation coefficient
It also provides information about the volatility of each asset's returns
Comparing standard deviations helps understand the relative riskiness of the two assets.
3.Getting Price Data-
price1: The closing price of the primary asset (the chart you're viewing)
price2: The closing price of the secondary asset (the one you selected in the input parameters)
Returns are used instead of raw prices because:
Returns are typically stationary (mean and variance stay constant over time)
Returns normalize for price levels, allowing comparison between assets of different values
Returns represent what investors actually care about: percentage changes in value
4.Information Table-
Creates a table to display statistics
Only shows on the last bar to avoid performance issues
Positioned in the top right of the chart
Has 2 columns and 15 rows
Populating the Table
The script then populates the table with various statistics:
Header Row: "Metric" and "Value"
Sample Information: Sample size and return type
Pearson Correlation: Value, t-statistic, p-value, and significance
Spearman Correlation: Value, t-statistic, p-value, and significance
Rolling Correlation: Current value
Standard Deviations: For both assets
Interpretation: Text description of the correlation strength
The table uses color coding to highlight important information:
Green for significant positive results
Red for significant negative results
Yellow for borderline significance
Color-coded headers for each section
=> Practical Applications and Interpretation
How to Interpret the Results
Correlation Strength
0.0 to 0.3 (or 0.0 to -0.3): Weak or no correlation
The assets move mostly independently of each other
Good for diversification purposes
0.3 to 0.7 (or -0.3 to -0.7): Moderate correlation
The assets show some tendency to move together (or in opposite directions)
May be useful for certain trading strategies but not extremely reliable
0.7 to 1.0 (or -0.7 to -1.0): Strong correlation
The assets show a strong tendency to move together (or in opposite directions)
Can be useful for pairs trading, hedging, or as a market indicator
Statistical Significance
p < 0.01: Very strong evidence that the correlation is real
Marked with ** in the table
Very unlikely to be due to random chance
p < 0.05: Strong evidence that the correlation is real
Marked with * in the table
Unlikely to be due to random chance
p ≥ 0.05: Weak evidence that the correlation is real
Not marked in the table
Could easily be due to random chance
Rolling Correlation
The rolling correlation shows how the relationship between assets changes over time
If the rolling correlation is much different from the long-term correlation, it suggests the relationship is changing
This can indicate:
A shift in market regime
Changing fundamentals of one or both assets
Temporary market dislocations that might present trading opportunities
Trading Applications
1. Portfolio Diversification
Goal: Reduce overall portfolio risk by combining assets that don't move together
Strategy: Look for assets with low or negative correlations
Example: If you hold tech stocks, you might add some utilities or bonds that have low correlation with tech
2. Pairs Trading
Goal: Profit from the relative price movements of two correlated assets
Strategy:
Find two assets with strong historical correlation
When their prices diverge (one goes up while the other goes down)
Buy the underperforming asset and short the outperforming asset
Close the positions when they converge back to their normal relationship
Example: If Coca-Cola and Pepsi are highly correlated but Coca-Cola drops while Pepsi rises, you might buy Coca-Cola and short Pepsi
3. Hedging
Goal: Reduce risk by taking an offsetting position in a negatively correlated asset
Strategy: Find assets that tend to move in opposite directions
Example: If you hold a portfolio of stocks, you might buy some gold or government bonds that tend to rise when stocks fall
4. Market Analysis
Goal: Understand market dynamics and interrelationships
Strategy: Analyze correlations between different sectors or asset classes
Example:
If tech stocks and semiconductor stocks are highly correlated, movements in one might predict movements in the other
If the correlation between stocks and bonds changes, it might signal a shift in market expectations
5. Risk Management
Goal: Understand and manage portfolio risk
Strategy: Monitor correlations to identify when diversification benefits might be breaking down
Example: During market crises, many assets that normally have low correlations can become highly correlated (correlation convergence), reducing diversification benefits
Advanced Interpretation and Caveats
Correlation vs. Causation
Important Note: Correlation does not imply causation
Example: Ice cream sales and drowning incidents are correlated (both increase in summer), but one doesn't cause the other
Implication: Just because two assets move together doesn't mean one causes the other to move
Solution: Look for fundamental economic reasons why assets might be correlated
Non-Stationary Correlations
Problem: Correlations between assets can change over time
Causes:
Changing market conditions
Shifts in monetary policy
Structural changes in the economy
Changes in the underlying businesses
Solution: Use rolling correlations to monitor how relationships change over time
Outliers and Extreme Events
Problem: Extreme market events can distort correlation measurements
Example: During a market crash, many assets may move in the same direction regardless of their normal relationship
Solution:
Use Spearman correlation, which is less sensitive to outliers
Be cautious when interpreting correlations during extreme market conditions
Sample Size Considerations
Problem: Small sample sizes can produce unreliable correlation estimates
Rule of Thumb: Use at least 30 data points for a rough estimate, 60+ for more reliable results
Solution:
Use the default correlation length of 60 or higher
Be skeptical of correlations calculated with small samples
Timeframe Considerations
Problem: Correlations can vary across different timeframes
Example: Two assets might be positively correlated on a daily basis but negatively correlated on a weekly basis
Solution:
Test correlations on multiple timeframes
Use the timeframe that matches your trading horizon
Look-Ahead Bias
Problem: Using information that wouldn't have been available at the time of trading
Example: Calculating correlation using future data
Solution: This script avoids look-ahead bias by using only historical data
Best Practices for Using This Script
1. Appropriate Parameter Selection
Correlation Window:
For short-term trading: 20-50 periods
For medium-term analysis: 50-100 periods
For long-term analysis: 100-500 periods
Rolling Window:
Should be shorter than the main correlation window
Typically 1/3 to 1/2 of the main window
Return Type:
For most applications: Log Returns (better statistical properties)
For simplicity: Simple Returns (easier to interpret)
2. Validation and Testing
Out-of-Sample Testing:
Calculate correlations on one time period
Test if they hold in a different time period
Multiple Timeframes:
Check if correlations are consistent across different timeframes
Economic Rationale:
Ensure there's a logical reason why assets should be correlated
3. Monitoring and Maintenance
Regular Review:
Correlations can change, so review them regularly
Alerts:
Set up alerts for significant correlation changes
Documentation:
Keep notes on why certain assets are correlated and what might change that relationship
4. Integration with Other Analysis
Fundamental Analysis:
Combine correlation analysis with fundamental factors
Technical Analysis:
Use correlation analysis alongside technical indicators
Market Context:
Consider how market conditions might affect correlations
Conclusion
This Scientific Correlation Testing Framework provides a comprehensive tool for analyzing relationships between financial assets. By offering both Pearson and Spearman correlation methods, statistical significance testing, and rolling correlation analysis, it goes beyond simple correlation measures to provide deeper insights.
For beginners, this script might seem complex, but it's built on fundamental statistical concepts that become clearer with use. Start with the default settings and focus on interpreting the main correlation lines and the statistics table. As you become more comfortable, you can adjust the parameters and explore more advanced applications.
Remember that correlation analysis is just one tool in a trader's toolkit. It should be used in conjunction with other forms of analysis and with a clear understanding of its limitations. When used properly, it can provide valuable insights for portfolio construction, risk management, and pair trading strategy development.
Candle Size MonitorCandle Size Monitor – Description
Update 27.10.25
Objective Volatility Assessment
The Candle Size Monitor helps traders assess actual market movement—regardless of whether candles appear visually large or small on the chart. It supports evaluating whether your planned trade structure (e.g., stop-loss, take-profit) aligns with current volatility.
Key Features
Volatility Analysis:
Calculates the average candle size (difference between high and low) over a user-defined number of candles.
Identifies the largest candle in the selected period.
Displays results in a compact table on the chart.
Exchange Rate Integration (optional):
Shows the current USD-EUR exchange rate (formatted with German-style comma and four decimal places).
Useful for traders in USD-denominated markets who apply EUR-based risk management rules.
Customizable Display:
Text Size: Small, medium, or large.
Colors: Customizable text and background colors.
Table Position: Top/bottom left/right.
Number of Candles: User-defined (default: 20).
Dynamic Updates:
The table updates with each new bar.
The exchange rate is fetched in real-time from OANDA:EURUSD.
Settings and Translations
Settings
Anzahl Kerzen → Number of Candles (Number of candles for calculation, default: 20).
Textgröße → Text Size (Text size in the table: small, medium, large).
Textfarbe → Text Color (Text color, default: white).
Hintergrundfarbe → Background Color (Background color of the table, default: black).
Position → Position (Table position: Top Left, Top Right, Bottom Left, Bottom Right).
Wechselkurs anzeigen (USD → EUR) → Show Exchange Rate (USD → EUR) (Option to display the exchange rate).
Table Contents and Translations
The table displays the following information (with German formatting):
Ø Größe (N):
English: "Avg Size (N): " (Average candle size over the last N candles).
Example: "Ø Größe (20): 15,3" → "Avg Size (20): 15.3".
Größte Kerze:
English: "Largest Candle: " (Largest candle size in the selected period).
Example: "Größte Kerze: 42,7" → "Largest Candle: 42.7".
1 USD = € (only if enabled)
English: "1 USD = EUR" (Current USD-EUR exchange rate, formatted with a comma).
Example: "1 USD = 0,9234 €" → "1 USD = 0.9234 EUR".
Smart MACD Volume Trader# Smart MACD Volume Trader
## Overview
Smart MACD Volume Trader is an enhanced momentum indicator that combines the classic MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) oscillator with an intelligent high-volume filter. This combination significantly reduces false signals by ensuring that trading signals are only generated when price momentum is confirmed by substantial volume activity.
The indicator supports over 24 different instruments including major and exotic forex pairs, precious metals (gold and silver), energy commodities (crude oil, natural gas), and industrial metals (copper). For forex and commodity traders, the indicator automatically maps to CME and COMEX futures contracts to provide accurate institutional-grade volume data.
## Originality and Core Concept
Traditional MACD indicators generate signals based solely on price momentum, which can result in numerous false signals during low-activity periods or ranging markets. This indicator addresses this critical weakness by introducing a volume confirmation layer with automatic institutional volume integration.
**What makes this approach original:**
- Signals are triggered only when MACD crossovers coincide with elevated volume activity
- Implements a lookback mechanism to detect volume spikes within recent bars
- Automatically detects and maps 24+ forex pairs and commodities to their corresponding CME and COMEX futures contracts
- Provides real institutional volume data for forex pairs where spot volume is unreliable
- Combines two independent market dimensions (price momentum and volume) into a single, actionable signal
- Includes intelligent asset detection that works across multiple exchanges and ticker formats
**The underlying principle:** Volume validates price movement. When institutional money enters the market, it creates volume signatures. By requiring high volume confirmation and using actual institutional volume data from futures markets, this indicator filters out weak price movements and focuses on trades backed by genuine market participation. The automatic futures mapping ensures that forex and commodity traders always have access to the most accurate volume data available, without manual configuration.
## How It Works
### MACD Component
The indicator calculates MACD using standard methodology:
1. **Fast EMA (default: 12 periods)** - Tracks short-term price momentum
2. **Slow EMA (default: 26 periods)** - Tracks longer-term price momentum
3. **MACD Line** - Difference between Fast EMA and Slow EMA
4. **Signal Line (default: 9-period SMA)** - Smoothed average of MACD line
**Crossover signals:**
- **Bullish:** MACD line crosses above Signal line (momentum turning positive)
- **Bearish:** MACD line crosses below Signal line (momentum turning negative)
### Volume Filter Component
The volume filter adds an essential confirmation layer:
1. **Volume Moving Average** - Calculates exponential MA of volume (default: 20 periods)
2. **High Volume Threshold** - Multiplies MA by ratio (default: 2.0x or 200%)
3. **Volume Detection** - Identifies bars where current volume exceeds threshold
4. **Lookback Period** - Checks if high volume occurred in recent bars (default: 5 bars)
**Signal logic:**
- Buy/Sell signals only trigger when BOTH conditions are met:
- MACD crossover/crossunder occurs
- High volume detected within lookback period
### Automatic CME Futures Integration
For forex traders, spot FX volume data can be unreliable or non-existent. This indicator solves this problem by automatically detecting forex pairs and mapping them to corresponding CME futures contracts with real institutional volume data.
**Supported Major Forex Pairs (7):**
- EURUSD → CME:6E1! (Euro FX Futures)
- GBPUSD → CME:6B1! (British Pound Futures)
- AUDUSD → CME:6A1! (Australian Dollar Futures)
- USDJPY → CME:6J1! (Japanese Yen Futures)
- USDCAD → CME:6C1! (Canadian Dollar Futures)
- USDCHF → CME:6S1! (Swiss Franc Futures)
- NZDUSD → CME:6N1! (New Zealand Dollar Futures)
**Supported Exotic Forex Pairs (4):**
- USDMXN → CME:6M1! (Mexican Peso Futures)
- USDRUB → CME:6R1! (Russian Ruble Futures)
- USDBRL → CME:6L1! (Brazilian Real Futures)
- USDZAR → CME:6Z1! (South African Rand Futures)
**Supported Cross Pairs (6):**
- EURJPY → CME:6E1! (Uses Euro Futures)
- GBPJPY → CME:6B1! (Uses British Pound Futures)
- EURGBP → CME:6E1! (Uses Euro Futures)
- AUDJPY → CME:6A1! (Uses Australian Dollar Futures)
- EURAUD → CME:6E1! (Uses Euro Futures)
- GBPAUD → CME:6B1! (Uses British Pound Futures)
**Supported Precious Metals (2):**
- Gold (XAUUSD, GOLD) → COMEX:GC1! (Gold Futures)
- Silver (XAGUSD, SILVER) → COMEX:SI1! (Silver Futures)
**Supported Energy Commodities (3):**
- WTI Crude Oil (USOIL, WTIUSD) → NYMEX:CL1! (Crude Oil Futures)
- Brent Oil (UKOIL) → NYMEX:BZ1! (Brent Crude Futures)
- Natural Gas (NATGAS) → NYMEX:NG1! (Natural Gas Futures)
**Supported Industrial Metals (1):**
- Copper (COPPER) → COMEX:HG1! (Copper Futures)
**How the automatic detection works:**
The indicator intelligently identifies the asset type by analyzing:
1. Exchange name (FX, OANDA, TVC, COMEX, NYMEX, etc.)
2. Currency pair pattern (6-letter codes like EURUSD, GBPUSD)
3. Commodity identifiers (XAU for gold, XAG for silver, OIL for crude)
When a supported instrument is detected, the indicator automatically switches to the corresponding futures contract for volume analysis. For stocks, cryptocurrencies, and other assets, the indicator uses the native volume data from the current chart.
**Visual feedback:**
An information table appears in the top-right corner of the MACD pane showing:
- Current chart symbol
- Exchange name
- Currency pair or asset name
- Volume source being used (highlighted in orange for futures, yellow for native volume)
- Current high volume status
This provides complete transparency about which data source the indicator is using for its volume analysis.
## How to Use
### Basic Setup
1. Add the indicator to your chart
2. The indicator displays in a separate pane (MACD) and overlay (signals/volume bars)
3. Default settings work well for most assets, but can be customized
### Signal Interpretation
### Visual Signals
**Visual Signals:**
- **Green "BUY" label** - Bullish MACD crossover confirmed by high volume
- **Red "SELL" label** - Bearish MACD crossunder confirmed by high volume
- **Green/Red candles** - Highlight bars with volume exceeding the threshold
- **Light green/red background** - Emphasizes signal bars on the chart
**Information Table:**
A detailed information table appears in the top-right corner of the MACD pane, providing real-time transparency about the indicator's operation:
- **Chart:** Current symbol being analyzed
- **Exchange:** The exchange or data feed being used
- **Pair:** The currency pair or asset name extracted from the ticker
- **Volume From:** The actual symbol used for volume analysis
- Orange color indicates CME or COMEX futures are being used (automatic institutional volume)
- Yellow color indicates native volume from the chart symbol is being used
- Hover tooltip shows whether automatic futures mapping is active
- **High Volume:** Current status showing YES (green) when volume exceeds threshold, NO (gray) otherwise
This table ensures complete transparency and allows you to verify that the correct volume source is being used for your analysis.
**Volume Analysis:**
- Gray histogram bars = Normal volume
- Red histogram bars = High volume (exceeds threshold)
- Green line = Volume moving average baseline
**MACD Analysis:**
- Blue line = MACD line (momentum indicator)
- Orange line = Signal line (trend confirmation)
- Gray dotted line = Zero line (bullish above, bearish below)
### Parameter Customization
**MACD Parameters:**
- Adjust Fast/Slow EMA lengths for different sensitivities
- Shorter periods = More signals, faster response
- Longer periods = Fewer signals, less noise
**Volume Parameters:**
- **Volume MA Period:** Higher values smooth volume analysis
- **High Volume Ratio:** Lower values (1.5x) = More signals; Higher values (3.0x) = Fewer, stronger signals
- **Volume Lookback Bars:** Controls how recent the volume spike must be
**Direction Filters:**
- **Only Buy Signals:** Enables long-only strategy mode
- **Only Sell Signals:** Enables short-only strategy mode
### Alert Configuration
The indicator includes three alert types:
1. **Buy Signal Alert** - Triggers when bullish signal appears
2. **Sell Signal Alert** - Triggers when bearish signal appears
3. **High Volume Alert** - Triggers when volume exceeds threshold
To set up alerts:
1. Click the indicator name → "Add alert on Smart MACD Volume Trader"
2. Select desired alert condition
3. Configure notification method (popup, email, webhook, etc.)
## Trading Strategy Guidelines
### Best Practices
**Recommended markets:**
- Liquid stocks (large-cap, high daily volume)
- Major forex pairs (EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, AUDUSD, USDCAD, USDCHF, NZDUSD)
- Exotic forex pairs (USDMXN, USDRUB, USDBRL, USDZAR)
- Cross pairs (EURJPY, GBPJPY, EURGBP, AUDJPY, EURAUD, GBPAUD)
- Precious metals (Gold, Silver with automatic COMEX futures mapping)
- Energy commodities (Crude Oil, Natural Gas with automatic NYMEX futures mapping)
- Industrial metals (Copper with automatic COMEX futures mapping)
- Major cryptocurrency pairs
- Index futures and ETFs
**Timeframe recommendations:**
- **Day trading:** 5-minute to 15-minute charts
- **Swing trading:** 1-hour to 4-hour charts
- **Position trading:** Daily charts
**Risk management:**
- Use signals as entry confirmation, not standalone strategy
- Combine with support/resistance levels
- Consider overall market trend direction
- Always use stop-loss orders
### Strategy Examples
**Trend Following Strategy:**
1. Identify overall trend using higher timeframe (e.g., daily chart)
2. Trade only in trend direction
3. Use "Only Buy" filter in uptrends, "Only Sell" in downtrends
4. Enter on signal, exit on opposite signal or at resistance/support
**Volume Breakout Strategy:**
1. Wait for consolidation period (low volume, tight MACD range)
2. Enter when signal appears with high volume (confirms breakout)
3. Target previous swing highs/lows
4. Stop loss below/above recent consolidation
**Forex Scalping Strategy (with automatic CME futures):**
1. The indicator automatically detects forex pairs and uses CME futures volume
2. Trade during active sessions only (use session filter)
3. Focus on quick profits (10-20 pips)
4. Exit at opposite signal or profit target
**Commodities Trading Strategy (Gold, Silver, Oil):**
1. The indicator automatically maps to COMEX and NYMEX futures contracts
2. Trade during high-liquidity sessions (overlap of major markets)
3. Use the high volume confirmation to identify institutional entry points
4. Combine with key support and resistance levels for entries
5. Monitor the information table to confirm futures volume is being used (orange color)
6. Exit on opposite MACD signal or at predefined profit targets
## Why This Combination Works
### The Volume Advantage
Studies consistently show that price movements accompanied by high volume are more likely to continue, while low-volume movements often reverse. This indicator leverages this principle by requiring volume confirmation.
**Key benefits:**
1. **Reduced False Signals:** Eliminates MACD whipsaws during low-volume consolidation
2. **Confirmation Bias:** Two independent indicators (price momentum + volume) agreeing
3. **Institutional Alignment:** High volume often indicates institutional participation
4. **Trend Validation:** Volume confirms that price momentum has "conviction"
### Statistical Edge
By combining two uncorrelated signals (MACD crossovers and volume spikes), the indicator creates a higher-probability setup than either signal alone. The lookback mechanism ensures signals aren't missed if volume spike slightly precedes the MACD cross.
## Supported Exchanges and Automatic Detection
The indicator includes intelligent asset detection that works across multiple exchanges and ticker formats:
**Forex Exchanges (Automatic CME Mapping):**
- FX (TradingView forex feed)
- OANDA
- FXCM
- SAXO
- FOREXCOM
- PEPPERSTONE
- EASYMARKETS
- FX_IDC
**Commodity Exchanges (Automatic COMEX/NYMEX Mapping):**
- TVC (TradingView commodity feed)
- COMEX (directly)
- NYMEX (directly)
- ICEUS
**Other Asset Classes (Native Volume):**
- Stock exchanges (NASDAQ, NYSE, AMEX, etc.)
- Cryptocurrency exchanges (BINANCE, COINBASE, KRAKEN, etc.)
- Index providers (SP, DJ, etc.)
The detection algorithm analyzes three factors:
1. Exchange prefix in the ticker symbol
2. Pattern matching for currency pairs (6-letter codes)
3. Commodity identifiers in the symbol name
This ensures accurate automatic detection regardless of which data feed or exchange you use for charting. The information table in the top-right corner always displays which volume source is being used, providing complete transparency.
## Technical Details
**Calculations:**
- MACD Fast MA: EMA(close, fastLength)
- MACD Slow MA: EMA(close, slowLength)
- MACD Line: Fast MA - Slow MA
- Signal Line: SMA(MACD Line, signalLength)
- Volume MA: Exponential MA of volume
- High Volume: Current volume >= Volume MA × Ratio
**Signal logic:**
```
Buy Signal = (MACD crosses above Signal) AND (High volume in last N bars)
Sell Signal = (MACD crosses below Signal) AND (High volume in last N bars)
```
## Parameters Reference
| Parameter | Default | Description |
|-----------|---------|-------------|
| Volume Symbol | Blank | Manual override for volume source (leave blank for automatic detection) |
| Use CME Futures | False | Legacy option (automatic detection is now built-in) |
| Alert Session | 1530-2200 | Active session time range for alerts |
| Timezone | UTC+1 | Timezone for alert sessions |
| Volume MA Period | 20 | Number of periods for volume moving average |
| High Volume Ratio | 2.0 | Volume threshold multiplier (2.0 = 200% of average) |
| Volume Lookback | 5 | Number of bars to check for high volume confirmation |
| MACD Fast Length | 12 | Fast EMA period for MACD calculation |
| MACD Slow Length | 26 | Slow EMA period for MACD calculation |
| MACD Signal Length | 9 | Signal line SMA period |
| Only Buy | False | Filter to show only bullish signals |
| Only Sell | False | Filter to show only bearish signals |
| Show Signals | True | Display buy and sell labels on chart |
## Optimization Tips
**For volatile markets (crypto, small caps):**
- Increase High Volume Ratio to 2.5-3.0
- Reduce Volume Lookback to 3-4 bars
- Consider faster MACD settings (8, 17, 9)
**For stable markets (large-cap stocks, bonds):**
- Decrease High Volume Ratio to 1.5-1.8
- Increase Volume MA Period to 30-50
- Use standard MACD settings
**For forex (with automatic CME futures):**
- The indicator automatically uses CME futures when forex pairs are detected
- Set appropriate trading session based on your timezone
- Use Volume Lookback of 5-7 bars
- Consider session-based alerts only
- Monitor the information table to verify correct futures mapping
**For commodities (Gold, Silver, Oil, Copper):**
- The indicator automatically maps to COMEX and NYMEX futures
- Increase High Volume Ratio to 2.0-2.5 for metals
- Use slightly higher Volume MA Period (25-30) for smoother analysis
- Trade during active market hours for best volume data
- The information table will show the futures contract being used (orange highlight)
## Limitations and Considerations
**What this indicator does NOT do:**
- Does not predict future price direction
- Does not guarantee profitable trades
- Does not replace proper risk management
- Does not work well in extremely low-volume conditions
**Market conditions to avoid:**
- Pre-market and after-hours sessions (low volume)
- Major news events (volatile, unpredictable volume)
- Holidays and low-liquidity periods
- Extremely low float stocks
## Conclusion
Smart MACD Volume Trader represents a significant evolution of the traditional MACD indicator by combining volume confirmation with automatic institutional volume integration. This dual-confirmation approach significantly improves signal quality by filtering out low-conviction price movements and ensuring traders work with accurate volume data.
The indicator's automatic detection and mapping system supports over 24 instruments across forex, commodities, and metals markets. By intelligently switching to CME and COMEX futures contracts when appropriate, the indicator provides forex and commodity traders with the same quality of volume data that stock traders naturally have access to.
This indicator is particularly valuable for traders who want to:
- Align their entries with institutional money flow
- Avoid getting trapped in false breakouts
- Trade forex pairs with reliable volume data
- Access accurate volume information for gold, silver, and energy commodities
- Combine momentum and volume analysis in a single, streamlined tool
Whether you are day trading stocks, swing trading forex pairs, or positioning in commodities markets, this indicator provides a robust framework for identifying high-probability momentum trades backed by genuine institutional participation. The automatic futures mapping works seamlessly across all supported instruments, requiring no manual configuration or expertise in futures markets.
---
## Support and Updates
This indicator is actively maintained and updated based on user feedback and market conditions. For questions about implementation or custom modifications, please use the comments section below.
**Disclaimer:** This indicator is for educational and informational purposes only. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own analysis and risk management before trading.
Squeeze Hour Frequency [CHE]Squeeze Hour Frequency (ATR-PR) — Standalone — Tracks daily squeeze occurrences by hour to reveal time-based volatility patterns
Summary
This indicator identifies periods of unusually low volatility, defined as squeezes, and tallies their frequency across each hour of the day over historical trading sessions. By aggregating counts into a sortable table, it helps users spot hours prone to these conditions, enabling better scheduling of trading activity to avoid or target specific intraday regimes. Signals gain robustness through percentile-based detection that adapts to recent volatility history, differing from fixed-threshold methods by focusing on relative lowness rather than absolute levels, which reduces false positives in varying market environments.
Motivation: Why this design?
Traders often face uneven intraday volatility, with certain hours showing clustered low-activity phases that precede or follow breakouts, leading to mistimed entries or overlooked calm periods. The core idea of hourly squeeze frequency addresses this by binning low-volatility events into 24 hourly slots and counting distinct daily occurrences, providing a historical profile of when squeezes cluster. This reveals time-of-day biases without relying on real-time alerts, allowing proactive adjustments to session focus.
What’s different vs. standard approaches?
- Reference baseline: Classical volatility tools like simple moving average crossovers or fixed ATR thresholds, which flag squeezes uniformly across the day.
- Architecture differences:
- Uses persistent arrays to track one squeeze per hour per day, preventing overcounting within sessions.
- Employs custom sorting on ratio arrays for dynamic table display, prioritizing top or bottom performers.
- Handles timezones explicitly to ensure consistent binning across global assets.
- Practical effect: Charts show a persistent table ranking hours by squeeze share, making intraday patterns immediately visible—such as a top hour capturing over 20 percent of total events—unlike static overlays that ignore temporal distribution, which matters for avoiding low-liquidity traps in crypto or forex.
How it works (technical)
The indicator first computes a rolling volatility measure over a specified lookback period. It then derives a relative ranking of the current value against recent history within a window of bars. A squeeze is flagged when this ranking falls below a user-defined cutoff, indicating the value is among the lowest in the recent sample.
On each bar, the local hour is extracted using the selected timezone. If a squeeze occurs and the bar has price data, the count for that hour increments only if no prior mark exists for the current day, using a persistent array to store the last marked day per hour. This ensures one tally per unique trading day per slot.
At the final bar, arrays compile counts and ratios for all 24 hours, where the ratio represents each hour's share of total squeezes observed. These are sorted ascending or descending based on display mode, and the top or bottom subset populates the table. Background shading highlights live squeezes in red for visual confirmation. Initialization uses zero-filled arrays for counts and negative seeds for day tracking, with state persisting across bars via variable declarations.
No higher timeframe data is pulled, so there is no repaint risk from external fetches; all logic runs on confirmed bars.
Parameter Guide
ATR Length — Controls the lookback for the volatility measure, influencing sensitivity to short-term fluctuations; shorter values increase responsiveness but add noise, longer ones smooth for stability — Default: 14 — Trade-offs/Tips: Use 10-20 for intraday charts to balance quick detection with fewer false squeezes; test on historical data to avoid over-smoothing in trending markets.
Percentile Window (bars) — Sets the history depth for ranking the current volatility value, affecting how "low" is defined relative to past; wider windows emphasize long-term norms — Default: 252 — Trade-offs/Tips: 100-300 bars suit daily cycles; narrower for fast assets like crypto to catch recent regimes, but risks instability in sparse data.
Squeeze threshold (PR < x) — Defines the cutoff for flagging low relative volatility, where values below this mark a squeeze; lower thresholds tighten detection for rarer events — Default: 10.0 — Trade-offs/Tips: 5-15 percent for conservative signals reducing false positives; raise to 20 for more frequent highlights in high-vol environments, monitoring for increased noise.
Timezone — Specifies the reference for hourly binning, ensuring alignment with market sessions — Default: Exchange — Trade-offs/Tips: Set to "America/New_York" for US assets; mismatches can skew counts, so verify against chart timezone.
Show Table — Toggles the results display, essential for reviewing frequencies — Default: true — Trade-offs/Tips: Disable on mobile for performance; pair with position tweaks for clean overlays.
Pos — Places the table on the chart pane — Default: Top Right — Trade-offs/Tips: Bottom Left avoids candle occlusion on volatile charts.
Font — Adjusts text readability in the table — Default: normal — Trade-offs/Tips: Tiny for dense views, large for emphasis on key hours.
Dark — Applies high-contrast colors for visibility — Default: true — Trade-offs/Tips: Toggle false in light themes to prevent washout.
Display — Filters table rows to focus on extremes or full list — Default: All — Trade-offs/Tips: Top 3 for quick scans of risky hours; Bottom 3 highlights safe low-squeeze periods.
Reading & Interpretation
Red background shading appears on bars meeting the squeeze condition, signaling current low relative volatility. The table lists hours as "H0" to "H23", with columns for daily squeeze counts, percentage share of total squeezes (summing to 100 percent across hours), and an arrow marker on the top hour. A summary row above details the peak count, its share, and the leading hour. A label at the last bar recaps total days observed, data-valid days, and top hour stats. Rising shares indicate clustering, suggesting regime persistence in that slot.
Practical Workflows & Combinations
- Trend following: Scan for hours with low squeeze shares to enter during stable regimes; confirm with higher highs or lower lows on the 15-minute chart, avoiding top-share hours post-news like tariff announcements.
- Exits/Stops: Tighten stops in high-share hours to guard against sudden vol spikes; use the table to shift to conservative sizing outside peak squeeze times.
- Multi-asset/Multi-TF: Defaults work across crypto pairs on 5-60 minute timeframes; for stocks, widen percentile window to 500 bars. Combine with volume oscillators—enter only if squeeze count is below average for the asset.
Behavior, Constraints & Performance
Logic executes on closed bars, with live bars updating counts provisionally but finalizing on confirmation; table refreshes only at the last bar, avoiding intrabar flicker. No security calls or higher timeframes, so no repaint from external data. Resources include a 5000-bar history limit, loops up to 24 iterations for sorting and totals, and arrays sized to 24 elements; labels and table are capped at 500 each for efficiency. Known limits: Skips hours without bars (e.g., weekends), assumes uniform data availability, and may undercount in sparse sessions; timezone shifts can alter profiles without warning.
Sensible Defaults & Quick Tuning
Start with ATR Length at 14, Percentile Window at 252, and threshold at 10.0 for broad crypto use. If too many squeezes flag (noisy table), raise threshold to 15.0 and narrow window to 100 for stricter relative lowness. For sluggish detection in calm markets, drop ATR Length to 10 and threshold to 5.0 to capture subtler dips. In high-vol assets, widen window to 500 and threshold to 20.0 for stability.
What this indicator is—and isn’t
This is a historical frequency tracker and visualization layer for intraday volatility patterns, best as a filter in multi-tool setups. It is not a standalone signal generator, predictive model, or risk manager—pair it with price action, news filters, and position sizing rules.
Disclaimer
The content provided, including all code and materials, is strictly for educational and informational purposes only. It is not intended as, and should not be interpreted as, financial advice, a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument, or an offer of any financial product or service. All strategies, tools, and examples discussed are provided for illustrative purposes to demonstrate coding techniques and the functionality of Pine Script within a trading context.
Any results from strategies or tools provided are hypothetical, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve high risk, including the potential loss of principal, and may not be suitable for all individuals. Before making any trading decisions, please consult with a qualified financial professional to understand the risks involved.
By using this script, you acknowledge and agree that any trading decisions are made solely at your discretion and risk.
Do not use this indicator on Heikin-Ashi, Renko, Kagi, Point-and-Figure, or Range charts, as these chart types can produce unrealistic results for signal markers and alerts.
Best regards and happy trading
Chervolino
Thanks to Duyck
for the ma sorter
Cumulative Returns by Session [BackQuant]Cumulative Returns by Session
What this is
This tool breaks the trading day into three user-defined sessions and tracks how much each session contributes to return, volatility, and volume. It then aggregates results over a rolling window so you can see which session has been pulling its weight, how streaky each session has been, and how sessions relate to one another through a compact correlation heatmap.
We’ve also given the functionality for the user to use a simplified table, just by switching off all settings they are not interested in.
How it works
1) Session segmentation
You define APAC, EU, and US sessions with explicit hours and time zones. The script detects when each session starts and ends on every intraday bar and records its open, intraday high and low, close, and summed volume.
2) Per-session math
At each session end the script computes:
Return — either Percent: (Close−Open)÷Open×100(Close − Open) ÷ Open × 100(Close−Open)÷Open×100 or Points: (Close−Open)(Close − Open)(Close−Open), based on your selection.
Volatility — either Range: (High−Low)÷Open×100(High − Low) ÷ Open × 100(High−Low)÷Open×100 or ATR scaled by price: ATR÷Open×100ATR ÷ Open × 100ATR÷Open×100.
Volume — total volume transacted during that session.
3) Storage and lookback
Each day’s three session stats are stored as a row. You choose how many recent sessions to keep in memory. The script then:
Builds cumulative returns for APAC, EU, US across the lookback.
Computes averages, win rates, and a Sharpe-like ratio avgreturn÷avgvolatilityavg return ÷ avg volatilityavgreturn÷avgvolatility per session.
Tracks streaks of positive or negative sessions to show momentum.
Tracks drawdowns on cumulative returns to show worst runs from peak.
Computes rolling means over a short window for short-term drift.
4) Correlation heatmap
Using the stored arrays of session returns, the script calculates Pearson correlations between APAC–EU, APAC–US, and EU–US, and colors the matrix by strength and sign so you can spot coupling or decoupling at a glance.
What it plots
Three lines: cumulative return for APAC, EU, US over the chosen lookback.
Zero reference line for orientation.
A statistics table with cumulative %, average %, positive session rate, and optional columns for volatility, average volume, max drawdown, current streak, return-to-vol ratio, and rolling average.
A small correlation heatmap table showing APAC, EU, US cross-session correlations.
How to use it
Pick the asset — leave Custom Instrument empty to use the chart symbol, or point to another symbol for cross-asset studies.
Set your sessions and time zones — defaults approximate APAC, EU, and US hours, but you can align them to exchange times or your workflow.
Choose calculation modes — Percent vs Points for return, Range vs ATR for volatility. Points are convenient for futures and fixed-tick assets, Percent is comparable across symbols.
Decide the lookback — more sessions smooths lines and stats; fewer sessions makes the tool more reactive.
Toggle analytics — add volatility, volume, drawdown, streaks, Sharpe-like ratio, rolling averages, and the correlation table as needed.
Why session attribution helps
Different sessions are driven by different flows. Asia often sets the overnight tone, Europe adds liquidity and direction changes, and the US session can dominate range expansion. Separating contributions by session helps you:
Identify which session has been the main driver of net trend.
Measure whether volatility or volume is concentrated in a specific window.
See if one session’s gains are consistently given back in another.
Adapt tactics: fade during a mean-reverting session, press during a trending session.
Reading the tables
Cumulative % — sum of session returns over the lookback. The sign and slope tell you who is carrying the move.
Avg Return % and Positive Sessions % — direction and hit rate. A low average but high hit rate implies many small moves; the reverse implies occasional big swings.
Avg Volatility % — typical intrabars range for that session. Compare with Avg Return to judge efficiency.
Return/Vol Ratio — return per unit of volatility. Higher is better for stability.
Max Drawdown % — worst cumulative give-back within the lookback. A quick way to spot riskiness by session.
Current Streak — consecutive up or down sessions. Useful for mean-reversion or regime awareness.
Rolling Avg % — short-window drift indicator to catch recent turnarounds.
Correlation matrix — green clusters indicate sessions tending to move together; red indicates offsetting behavior.
Settings overview
Basic
Number of Sessions — how many recent days to include.
Custom Instrument — analyze another ticker while staying on your current chart.
Session Configuration and Times
Enable or hide APAC, EU, US rows.
Set hours per session and the specific time zone for each.
Calculation Methods
Return Calculation — Percent or Points.
Volatility Calculation — Range or ATR; ATR Length when applicable.
Advanced Analytics
Correlation, Drawdown, Momentum, Sharpe-like ratio, Rolling Statistics, Rolling Period.
Display Options and Colors
Show Statistics Table and its position.
Toggle columns for Volatility and Volume.
Pick individual colors for each session line and row accents.
Common applications
Session bias mapping — find which window tends to trend in your market and plan exposure accordingly.
Strategy scheduling — allocate attention or risk to the session with the best return-to-vol ratio.
News and macro awareness — see if correlation rises around central bank cycles or major data releases.
Cross-asset monitoring — set the Custom Instrument to a driver (index future, DXY, yields) to see if your symbol reacts in a particular session.
Notes
This indicator works on intraday charts, since sessions are defined within a day. If you change session clocks or time zones, give the script a few bars to accumulate fresh rows. Percent vs Points and Range vs ATR choices affect comparability across assets, so be consistent when comparing symbols.
Session context is one of the simplest ways to explain a messy tape. By separating the day into three windows and scoring each one on return, volatility, and consistency, this tool shows not just where price ended up but when and how it got there. Use the cumulative lines to spot the steady driver, read the table to judge quality and risk, and glance at the heatmap to learn whether the sessions are amplifying or canceling one another. Adjust the hours to your market and let the data tell you which session deserves your focus.
ATAI Volume analysis with price action V 1.00ATAI Volume Analysis with Price Action
1. Introduction
1.1 Overview
ATAI Volume Analysis with Price Action is a composite indicator designed for TradingView. It combines per‑side volume data —that is, how much buying and selling occurs during each bar—with standard price‑structure elements such as swings, trend lines and support/resistance. By blending these elements the script aims to help a trader understand which side is in control, whether a breakout is genuine, when markets are potentially exhausted and where liquidity providers might be active.
The indicator is built around TradingView’s up/down volume feed accessed via the TradingView/ta/10 library. The following excerpt from the script illustrates how this feed is configured:
import TradingView/ta/10 as tvta
// Determine lower timeframe string based on user choice and chart resolution
string lower_tf_breakout = use_custom_tf_input ? custom_tf_input :
timeframe.isseconds ? "1S" :
timeframe.isintraday ? "1" :
timeframe.isdaily ? "5" : "60"
// Request up/down volume (both positive)
= tvta.requestUpAndDownVolume(lower_tf_breakout)
Lower‑timeframe selection. If you do not specify a custom lower timeframe, the script chooses a default based on your chart resolution: 1 second for second charts, 1 minute for intraday charts, 5 minutes for daily charts and 60 minutes for anything longer. Smaller intervals provide a more precise view of buyer and seller flow but cover fewer bars. Larger intervals cover more history at the cost of granularity.
Tick vs. time bars. Many trading platforms offer a tick / intrabar calculation mode that updates an indicator on every trade rather than only on bar close. Turning on one‑tick calculation will give the most accurate split between buy and sell volume on the current bar, but it typically reduces the amount of historical data available. For the highest fidelity in live trading you can enable this mode; for studying longer histories you might prefer to disable it. When volume data is completely unavailable (some instruments and crypto pairs), all modules that rely on it will remain silent and only the price‑structure backbone will operate.
Figure caption, Each panel shows the indicator’s info table for a different volume sampling interval. In the left chart, the parentheses “(5)” beside the buy‑volume figure denote that the script is aggregating volume over five‑minute bars; the center chart uses “(1)” for one‑minute bars; and the right chart uses “(1T)” for a one‑tick interval. These notations tell you which lower timeframe is driving the volume calculations. Shorter intervals such as 1 minute or 1 tick provide finer detail on buyer and seller flow, but they cover fewer bars; longer intervals like five‑minute bars smooth the data and give more history.
Figure caption, The values in parentheses inside the info table come directly from the Breakout — Settings. The first row shows the custom lower-timeframe used for volume calculations (e.g., “(1)”, “(5)”, or “(1T)”)
2. Price‑Structure Backbone
Even without volume, the indicator draws structural features that underpin all other modules. These features are always on and serve as the reference levels for subsequent calculations.
2.1 What it draws
• Pivots: Swing highs and lows are detected using the pivot_left_input and pivot_right_input settings. A pivot high is identified when the high recorded pivot_right_input bars ago exceeds the highs of the preceding pivot_left_input bars and is also higher than (or equal to) the highs of the subsequent pivot_right_input bars; pivot lows follow the inverse logic. The indicator retains only a fixed number of such pivot points per side, as defined by point_count_input, discarding the oldest ones when the limit is exceeded.
• Trend lines: For each side, the indicator connects the earliest stored pivot and the most recent pivot (oldest high to newest high, and oldest low to newest low). When a new pivot is added or an old one drops out of the lookback window, the line’s endpoints—and therefore its slope—are recalculated accordingly.
• Horizontal support/resistance: The highest high and lowest low within the lookback window defined by length_input are plotted as horizontal dashed lines. These serve as short‑term support and resistance levels.
• Ranked labels: If showPivotLabels is enabled the indicator prints labels such as “HH1”, “HH2”, “LL1” and “LL2” near each pivot. The ranking is determined by comparing the price of each stored pivot: HH1 is the highest high, HH2 is the second highest, and so on; LL1 is the lowest low, LL2 is the second lowest. In the case of equal prices the newer pivot gets the better rank. Labels are offset from price using ½ × ATR × label_atr_multiplier, with the ATR length defined by label_atr_len_input. A dotted connector links each label to the candle’s wick.
2.2 Key settings
• length_input: Window length for finding the highest and lowest values and for determining trend line endpoints. A larger value considers more history and will generate longer trend lines and S/R levels.
• pivot_left_input, pivot_right_input: Strictness of swing confirmation. Higher values require more bars on either side to form a pivot; lower values create more pivots but may include minor swings.
• point_count_input: How many pivots are kept in memory on each side. When new pivots exceed this number the oldest ones are discarded.
• label_atr_len_input and label_atr_multiplier: Determine how far pivot labels are offset from the bar using ATR. Increasing the multiplier moves labels further away from price.
• Styling inputs for trend lines, horizontal lines and labels (color, width and line style).
Figure caption, The chart illustrates how the indicator’s price‑structure backbone operates. In this daily example, the script scans for bars where the high (or low) pivot_right_input bars back is higher (or lower) than the preceding pivot_left_input bars and higher or lower than the subsequent pivot_right_input bars; only those bars are marked as pivots.
These pivot points are stored and ranked: the highest high is labelled “HH1”, the second‑highest “HH2”, and so on, while lows are marked “LL1”, “LL2”, etc. Each label is offset from the price by half of an ATR‑based distance to keep the chart clear, and a dotted connector links the label to the actual candle.
The red diagonal line connects the earliest and latest stored high pivots, and the green line does the same for low pivots; when a new pivot is added or an old one drops out of the lookback window, the end‑points and slopes adjust accordingly. Dashed horizontal lines mark the highest high and lowest low within the current lookback window, providing visual support and resistance levels. Together, these elements form the structural backbone that other modules reference, even when volume data is unavailable.
3. Breakout Module
3.1 Concept
This module confirms that a price break beyond a recent high or low is supported by a genuine shift in buying or selling pressure. It requires price to clear the highest high (“HH1”) or lowest low (“LL1”) and, simultaneously, that the winning side shows a significant volume spike, dominance and ranking. Only when all volume and price conditions pass is a breakout labelled.
3.2 Inputs
• lookback_break_input : This controls the number of bars used to compute moving averages and percentiles for volume. A larger value smooths the averages and percentiles but makes the indicator respond more slowly.
• vol_mult_input : The “spike” multiplier; the current buy or sell volume must be at least this multiple of its moving average over the lookback window to qualify as a breakout.
• rank_threshold_input (0–100) : Defines a volume percentile cutoff: the current buyer/seller volume must be in the top (100−threshold)%(100−threshold)% of all volumes within the lookback window. For example, if set to 80, the current volume must be in the top 20 % of the lookback distribution.
• ratio_threshold_input (0–1) : Specifies the minimum share of total volume that the buyer (for a bullish breakout) or seller (for bearish) must hold on the current bar; the code also requires that the cumulative buyer volume over the lookback window exceeds the seller volume (and vice versa for bearish cases).
• use_custom_tf_input / custom_tf_input : When enabled, these inputs override the automatic choice of lower timeframe for up/down volume; otherwise the script selects a sensible default based on the chart’s timeframe.
• Label appearance settings : Separate options control the ATR-based offset length, offset multiplier, label size and colors for bullish and bearish breakout labels, as well as the connector style and width.
3.3 Detection logic
1. Data preparation : Retrieve per‑side volume from the lower timeframe and take absolute values. Build rolling arrays of the last lookback_break_input values to compute simple moving averages (SMAs), cumulative sums and percentile ranks for buy and sell volume.
2. Volume spike: A spike is flagged when the current buy (or, in the bearish case, sell) volume is at least vol_mult_input times its SMA over the lookback window.
3. Dominance test: The buyer’s (or seller’s) share of total volume on the current bar must meet or exceed ratio_threshold_input. In addition, the cumulative sum of buyer volume over the window must exceed the cumulative sum of seller volume for a bullish breakout (and vice versa for bearish). A separate requirement checks the sign of delta: for bullish breakouts delta_breakout must be non‑negative; for bearish breakouts it must be non‑positive.
4. Percentile rank: The current volume must fall within the top (100 – rank_threshold_input) percent of the lookback distribution—ensuring that the spike is unusually large relative to recent history.
5. Price test: For a bullish signal, the closing price must close above the highest pivot (HH1); for a bearish signal, the close must be below the lowest pivot (LL1).
6. Labeling: When all conditions above are satisfied, the indicator prints “Breakout ↑” above the bar (bullish) or “Breakout ↓” below the bar (bearish). Labels are offset using half of an ATR‑based distance and linked to the candle with a dotted connector.
Figure caption, (Breakout ↑ example) , On this daily chart, price pushes above the red trendline and the highest prior pivot (HH1). The indicator recognizes this as a valid breakout because the buyer‑side volume on the lower timeframe spikes above its recent moving average and buyers dominate the volume statistics over the lookback period; when combined with a close above HH1, this satisfies the breakout conditions. The “Breakout ↑” label appears above the candle, and the info table highlights that up‑volume is elevated relative to its 11‑bar average, buyer share exceeds the dominance threshold and money‑flow metrics support the move.
Figure caption, In this daily example, price breaks below the lowest pivot (LL1) and the lower green trendline. The indicator identifies this as a bearish breakout because sell‑side volume is sharply elevated—about twice its 11‑bar average—and sellers dominate both the bar and the lookback window. With the close falling below LL1, the script triggers a Breakout ↓ label and marks the corresponding row in the info table, which shows strong down volume, negative delta and a seller share comfortably above the dominance threshold.
4. Market Phase Module (Volume Only)
4.1 Concept
Not all markets trend; many cycle between periods of accumulation (buying pressure building up), distribution (selling pressure dominating) and neutral behavior. This module classifies the current bar into one of these phases without using ATR , relying solely on buyer and seller volume statistics. It looks at net flows, ratio changes and an OBV‑like cumulative line with dual‑reference (1‑ and 2‑bar) trends. The result is displayed both as on‑chart labels and in a dedicated row of the info table.
4.2 Inputs
• phase_period_len: Number of bars over which to compute sums and ratios for phase detection.
• phase_ratio_thresh : Minimum buyer share (for accumulation) or minimum seller share (for distribution, derived as 1 − phase_ratio_thresh) of the total volume.
• strict_mode: When enabled, both the 1‑bar and 2‑bar changes in each statistic must agree on the direction (strict confirmation); when disabled, only one of the two references needs to agree (looser confirmation).
• Color customisation for info table cells and label styling for accumulation and distribution phases, including ATR length, multiplier, label size, colors and connector styles.
• show_phase_module: Toggles the entire phase detection subsystem.
• show_phase_labels: Controls whether on‑chart labels are drawn when accumulation or distribution is detected.
4.3 Detection logic
The module computes three families of statistics over the volume window defined by phase_period_len:
1. Net sum (buyers minus sellers): net_sum_phase = Σ(buy) − Σ(sell). A positive value indicates a predominance of buyers. The code also computes the differences between the current value and the values 1 and 2 bars ago (d_net_1, d_net_2) to derive up/down trends.
2. Buyer ratio: The instantaneous ratio TF_buy_breakout / TF_tot_breakout and the window ratio Σ(buy) / Σ(total). The current ratio must exceed phase_ratio_thresh for accumulation or fall below 1 − phase_ratio_thresh for distribution. The first and second differences of the window ratio (d_ratio_1, d_ratio_2) determine trend direction.
3. OBV‑like cumulative net flow: An on‑balance volume analogue obv_net_phase increments by TF_buy_breakout − TF_sell_breakout each bar. Its differences over the last 1 and 2 bars (d_obv_1, d_obv_2) provide trend clues.
The algorithm then combines these signals:
• For strict mode , accumulation requires: (a) current ratio ≥ threshold, (b) cumulative ratio ≥ threshold, (c) both ratio differences ≥ 0, (d) net sum differences ≥ 0, and (e) OBV differences ≥ 0. Distribution is the mirror case.
• For loose mode , it relaxes the directional tests: either the 1‑ or the 2‑bar difference needs to agree in each category.
If all conditions for accumulation are satisfied, the phase is labelled “Accumulation” ; if all conditions for distribution are satisfied, it’s labelled “Distribution” ; otherwise the phase is “Neutral” .
4.4 Outputs
• Info table row : Row 8 displays “Market Phase (Vol)” on the left and the detected phase (Accumulation, Distribution or Neutral) on the right. The text colour of both cells matches a user‑selectable palette (typically green for accumulation, red for distribution and grey for neutral).
• On‑chart labels : When show_phase_labels is enabled and a phase persists for at least one bar, the module prints a label above the bar ( “Accum” ) or below the bar ( “Dist” ) with a dashed or dotted connector. The label is offset using ATR based on phase_label_atr_len_input and phase_label_multiplier and is styled according to user preferences.
Figure caption, The chart displays a red “Dist” label above a particular bar, indicating that the accumulation/distribution module identified a distribution phase at that point. The detection is based on seller dominance: during that bar, the net buyer-minus-seller flow and the OBV‑style cumulative flow were trending down, and the buyer ratio had dropped below the preset threshold. These conditions satisfy the distribution criteria in strict mode. The label is placed above the bar using an ATR‑based offset and a dashed connector. By the time of the current bar in the screenshot, the phase indicator shows “Neutral” in the info table—signaling that neither accumulation nor distribution conditions are currently met—yet the historical “Dist” label remains to mark where the prior distribution phase began.
Figure caption, In this example the market phase module has signaled an Accumulation phase. Three bars before the current candle, the algorithm detected a shift toward buyers: up‑volume exceeded its moving average, down‑volume was below average, and the buyer share of total volume climbed above the threshold while the on‑balance net flow and cumulative ratios were trending upwards. The blue “Accum” label anchored below that bar marks the start of the phase; it remains on the chart because successive bars continue to satisfy the accumulation conditions. The info table confirms this: the “Market Phase (Vol)” row still reads Accumulation, and the ratio and sum rows show buyers dominating both on the current bar and across the lookback window.
5. OB/OS Spike Module
5.1 What overbought/oversold means here
In many markets, a rapid extension up or down is often followed by a period of consolidation or reversal. The indicator interprets overbought (OB) conditions as abnormally strong selling risk at or after a price rally and oversold (OS) conditions as unusually strong buying risk after a decline. Importantly, these are not direct trade signals; rather they flag areas where caution or contrarian setups may be appropriate.
5.2 Inputs
• minHits_obos (1–7): Minimum number of oscillators that must agree on an overbought or oversold condition for a label to print.
• syncWin_obos: Length of a small sliding window over which oscillator votes are smoothed by taking the maximum count observed. This helps filter out choppy signals.
• Volume spike criteria: kVolRatio_obos (ratio of current volume to its SMA) and zVolThr_obos (Z‑score threshold) across volLen_obos. Either threshold can trigger a spike.
• Oscillator toggles and periods: Each of RSI, Stochastic (K and D), Williams %R, CCI, MFI, DeMarker and Stochastic RSI can be independently enabled; their periods are adjustable.
• Label appearance: ATR‑based offset, size, colors for OB and OS labels, plus connector style and width.
5.3 Detection logic
1. Directional volume spikes: Volume spikes are computed separately for buyer and seller volumes. A sell volume spike (sellVolSpike) flags a potential OverBought bar, while a buy volume spike (buyVolSpike) flags a potential OverSold bar. A spike occurs when the respective volume exceeds kVolRatio_obos times its simple moving average over the window or when its Z‑score exceeds zVolThr_obos.
2. Oscillator votes: For each enabled oscillator, calculate its overbought and oversold state using standard thresholds (e.g., RSI ≥ 70 for OB and ≤ 30 for OS; Stochastic %K/%D ≥ 80 for OB and ≤ 20 for OS; etc.). Count how many oscillators vote for OB and how many vote for OS.
3. Minimum hits: Apply the smoothing window syncWin_obos to the vote counts using a maximum‑of‑last‑N approach. A candidate bar is only considered if the smoothed OB hit count ≥ minHits_obos (for OverBought) or the smoothed OS hit count ≥ minHits_obos (for OverSold).
4. Tie‑breaking: If both OverBought and OverSold spike conditions are present on the same bar, compare the smoothed hit counts: the side with the higher count is selected; ties default to OverBought.
5. Label printing: When conditions are met, the bar is labelled as “OverBought X/7” above the candle or “OverSold X/7” below it. “X” is the number of oscillators confirming, and the bracket lists the abbreviations of contributing oscillators. Labels are offset from price using half of an ATR‑scaled distance and can optionally include a dotted or dashed connector line.
Figure caption, In this chart the overbought/oversold module has flagged an OverSold signal. A sell‑off from the prior highs brought price down to the lower trend‑line, where the bar marked “OverSold 3/7 DeM” appears. This label indicates that on that bar the module detected a buy‑side volume spike and that at least three of the seven enabled oscillators—in this case including the DeMarker—were in oversold territory. The label is printed below the candle with a dotted connector, signaling that the market may be temporarily exhausted on the downside. After this oversold print, price begins to rebound towards the upper red trend‑line and higher pivot levels.
Figure caption, This example shows the overbought/oversold module in action. In the left‑hand panel you can see the OB/OS settings where each oscillator (RSI, Stochastic, Williams %R, CCI, MFI, DeMarker and Stochastic RSI) can be enabled or disabled, and the ATR length and label offset multiplier adjusted. On the chart itself, price has pushed up to the descending red trendline and triggered an “OverBought 3/7” label. That means the sell‑side volume spiked relative to its average and three out of the seven enabled oscillators were in overbought territory. The label is offset above the candle by half of an ATR and connected with a dashed line, signaling that upside momentum may be overextended and a pause or pullback could follow.
6. Buyer/Seller Trap Module
6.1 Concept
A bull trap occurs when price appears to break above resistance, attracting buyers, but fails to sustain the move and quickly reverses, leaving a long upper wick and trapping late entrants. A bear trap is the opposite: price breaks below support, lures in sellers, then snaps back, leaving a long lower wick and trapping shorts. This module detects such traps by looking for price structure sweeps, order‑flow mismatches and dominance reversals. It uses a scoring system to differentiate risk from confirmed traps.
6.2 Inputs
• trap_lookback_len: Window length used to rank extremes and detect sweeps.
• trap_wick_threshold: Minimum proportion of a bar’s range that must be wick (upper for bull traps, lower for bear traps) to qualify as a sweep.
• trap_score_risk: Minimum aggregated score required to flag a trap risk. (The code defines a trap_score_confirm input, but confirmation is actually based on price reversal rather than a separate score threshold.)
• trap_confirm_bars: Maximum number of bars allowed for price to reverse and confirm the trap. If price does not reverse in this window, the risk label will expire or remain unconfirmed.
• Label settings: ATR length and multiplier for offsetting, size, colours for risk and confirmed labels, and connector style and width. Separate settings exist for bull and bear traps.
• Toggle inputs: show_trap_module and show_trap_labels enable the module and control whether labels are drawn on the chart.
6.3 Scoring logic
The module assigns points to several conditions and sums them to determine whether a trap risk is present. For bull traps, the score is built from the following (bear traps mirror the logic with highs and lows swapped):
1. Sweep (2 points): Price trades above the high pivot (HH1) but fails to close above it and leaves a long upper wick at least trap_wick_threshold × range. For bear traps, price dips below the low pivot (LL1), fails to close below and leaves a long lower wick.
2. Close break (1 point): Price closes beyond HH1 or LL1 without leaving a long wick.
3. Candle/delta mismatch (2 points): The candle closes bullish yet the order flow delta is negative or the seller ratio exceeds 50%, indicating hidden supply. Conversely, a bearish close with positive delta or buyer dominance suggests hidden demand.
4. Dominance inversion (2 points): The current bar’s buyer volume has the highest rank in the lookback window while cumulative sums favor sellers, or vice versa.
5. Low‑volume break (1 point): Price crosses the pivot but total volume is below its moving average.
The total score for each side is compared to trap_score_risk. If the score is high enough, a “Bull Trap Risk” or “Bear Trap Risk” label is drawn, offset from the candle by half of an ATR‑scaled distance using a dashed outline. If, within trap_confirm_bars, price reverses beyond the opposite level—drops back below the high pivot for bull traps or rises above the low pivot for bear traps—the label is upgraded to a solid “Bull Trap” or “Bear Trap” . In this version of the code, there is no separate score threshold for confirmation: the variable trap_score_confirm is unused; confirmation depends solely on a successful price reversal within the specified number of bars.
Figure caption, In this example the trap module has flagged a Bear Trap Risk. Price initially breaks below the most recent low pivot (LL1), but the bar closes back above that level and leaves a long lower wick, suggesting a failed push lower. Combined with a mismatch between the candle direction and the order flow (buyers regain control) and a reversal in volume dominance, the aggregate score exceeds the risk threshold, so a dashed “Bear Trap Risk” label prints beneath the bar. The green and red trend lines mark the current low and high pivot trajectories, while the horizontal dashed lines show the highest and lowest values in the lookback window. If, within the next few bars, price closes decisively above the support, the risk label would upgrade to a solid “Bear Trap” label.
Figure caption, In this example the trap module has identified both ends of a price range. Near the highs, price briefly pushes above the descending red trendline and the recent pivot high, but fails to close there and leaves a noticeable upper wick. That combination of a sweep above resistance and order‑flow mismatch generates a Bull Trap Risk label with a dashed outline, warning that the upside break may not hold. At the opposite extreme, price later dips below the green trendline and the labelled low pivot, then quickly snaps back and closes higher. The long lower wick and subsequent price reversal upgrade the previous bear‑trap risk into a confirmed Bear Trap (solid label), indicating that sellers were caught on a false breakdown. Horizontal dashed lines mark the highest high and lowest low of the lookback window, while the red and green diagonals connect the earliest and latest pivot highs and lows to visualize the range.
7. Sharp Move Module
7.1 Concept
Markets sometimes display absorption or climax behavior—periods when one side steadily gains the upper hand before price breaks out with a sharp move. This module evaluates several order‑flow and volume conditions to anticipate such moves. Users can choose how many conditions must be met to flag a risk and how many (plus a price break) are required for confirmation.
7.2 Inputs
• sharp Lookback: Number of bars in the window used to compute moving averages, sums, percentile ranks and reference levels.
• sharpPercentile: Minimum percentile rank for the current side’s volume; the current buy (or sell) volume must be greater than or equal to this percentile of historical volumes over the lookback window.
• sharpVolMult: Multiplier used in the volume climax check. The current side’s volume must exceed this multiple of its average to count as a climax.
• sharpRatioThr: Minimum dominance ratio (current side’s volume relative to the opposite side) used in both the instant and cumulative dominance checks.
• sharpChurnThr: Maximum ratio of a bar’s range to its ATR for absorption/churn detection; lower values indicate more absorption (large volume in a small range).
• sharpScoreRisk: Minimum number of conditions that must be true to print a risk label.
• sharpScoreConfirm: Minimum number of conditions plus a price break required for confirmation.
• sharpCvdThr: Threshold for cumulative delta divergence versus price change (positive for bullish accumulation, negative for bearish distribution).
• Label settings: ATR length (sharpATRlen) and multiplier (sharpLabelMult) for positioning labels, label size, colors and connector styles for bullish and bearish sharp moves.
• Toggles: enableSharp activates the module; show_sharp_labels controls whether labels are drawn.
7.3 Conditions (six per side)
For each side, the indicator computes six boolean conditions and sums them to form a score:
1. Dominance (instant and cumulative):
– Instant dominance: current buy volume ≥ sharpRatioThr × current sell volume.
– Cumulative dominance: sum of buy volumes over the window ≥ sharpRatioThr × sum of sell volumes (and vice versa for bearish checks).
2. Accumulation/Distribution divergence: Over the lookback window, cumulative delta rises by at least sharpCvdThr while price fails to rise (bullish), or cumulative delta falls by at least sharpCvdThr while price fails to fall (bearish).
3. Volume climax: The current side’s volume is ≥ sharpVolMult × its average and the product of volume and bar range is the highest in the lookback window.
4. Absorption/Churn: The current side’s volume divided by the bar’s range equals the highest value in the window and the bar’s range divided by ATR ≤ sharpChurnThr (indicating large volume within a small range).
5. Percentile rank: The current side’s volume percentile rank is ≥ sharp Percentile.
6. Mirror logic for sellers: The above checks are repeated with buyer and seller roles swapped and the price break levels reversed.
Each condition that passes contributes one point to the corresponding side’s score (0 or 1). Risk and confirmation thresholds are then applied to these scores.
7.4 Scoring and labels
• Risk: If scoreBull ≥ sharpScoreRisk, a “Sharp ↑ Risk” label is drawn above the bar. If scoreBear ≥ sharpScoreRisk, a “Sharp ↓ Risk” label is drawn below the bar.
• Confirmation: A risk label is upgraded to “Sharp ↑” when scoreBull ≥ sharpScoreConfirm and the bar closes above the highest recent pivot (HH1); for bearish cases, confirmation requires scoreBear ≥ sharpScoreConfirm and a close below the lowest pivot (LL1).
• Label positioning: Labels are offset from the candle by ATR × sharpLabelMult (full ATR times multiplier), not half, and may include a dashed or dotted connector line if enabled.
Figure caption, In this chart both bullish and bearish sharp‑move setups have been flagged. Earlier in the range, a “Sharp ↓ Risk” label appears beneath a candle: the sell‑side score met the risk threshold, signaling that the combination of strong sell volume, dominance and absorption within a narrow range suggested a potential sharp decline. The price did not close below the lower pivot, so this label remains a “risk” and no confirmation occurred. Later, as the market recovered and volume shifted back to the buy side, a “Sharp ↑ Risk” label prints above a candle near the top of the channel. Here, buy‑side dominance, cumulative delta divergence and a volume climax aligned, but price has not yet closed above the upper pivot (HH1), so the alert is still a risk rather than a confirmed sharp‑up move.
Figure caption, In this chart a Sharp ↑ label is displayed above a candle, indicating that the sharp move module has confirmed a bullish breakout. Prior bars satisfied the risk threshold — showing buy‑side dominance, positive cumulative delta divergence, a volume climax and strong absorption in a narrow range — and this candle closes above the highest recent pivot, upgrading the earlier “Sharp ↑ Risk” alert to a full Sharp ↑ signal. The green label is offset from the candle with a dashed connector, while the red and green trend lines trace the high and low pivot trajectories and the dashed horizontals mark the highest and lowest values of the lookback window.
8. Market‑Maker / Spread‑Capture Module
8.1 Concept
Liquidity providers often “capture the spread” by buying and selling in almost equal amounts within a very narrow price range. These bars can signal temporary congestion before a move or reflect algorithmic activity. This module flags bars where both buyer and seller volumes are high, the price range is only a few ticks and the buy/sell split remains close to 50%. It helps traders spot potential liquidity pockets.
8.2 Inputs
• scalpLookback: Window length used to compute volume averages.
• scalpVolMult: Multiplier applied to each side’s average volume; both buy and sell volumes must exceed this multiple.
• scalpTickCount: Maximum allowed number of ticks in a bar’s range (calculated as (high − low) / minTick). A value of 1 or 2 captures ultra‑small bars; increasing it relaxes the range requirement.
• scalpDeltaRatio: Maximum deviation from a perfect 50/50 split. For example, 0.05 means the buyer share must be between 45% and 55%.
• Label settings: ATR length, multiplier, size, colors, connector style and width.
• Toggles : show_scalp_module and show_scalp_labels to enable the module and its labels.
8.3 Signal
When, on the current bar, both TF_buy_breakout and TF_sell_breakout exceed scalpVolMult times their respective averages and (high − low)/minTick ≤ scalpTickCount and the buyer share is within scalpDeltaRatio of 50%, the module prints a “Spread ↔” label above the bar. The label uses the same ATR offset logic as other modules and draws a connector if enabled.
Figure caption, In this chart the spread‑capture module has identified a potential liquidity pocket. Buyer and seller volumes both spiked above their recent averages, yet the candle’s range measured only a couple of ticks and the buy/sell split stayed close to 50 %. This combination met the module’s criteria, so it printed a grey “Spread ↔” label above the bar. The red and green trend lines link the earliest and latest high and low pivots, and the dashed horizontals mark the highest high and lowest low within the current lookback window.
9. Money Flow Module
9.1 Concept
To translate volume into a monetary measure, this module multiplies each side’s volume by the closing price. It tracks buying and selling system money default currency on a per-bar basis and sums them over a chosen period. The difference between buy and sell currencies (Δ$) shows net inflow or outflow.
9.2 Inputs
• mf_period_len_mf: Number of bars used for summing buy and sell dollars.
• Label appearance settings: ATR length, multiplier, size, colors for up/down labels, and connector style and width.
• Toggles: Use enableMoneyFlowLabel_mf and showMFLabels to control whether the module and its labels are displayed.
9.3 Calculations
• Per-bar money: Buy $ = TF_buy_breakout × close; Sell $ = TF_sell_breakout × close. Their difference is Δ$ = Buy $ − Sell $.
• Summations: Over mf_period_len_mf bars, compute Σ Buy $, Σ Sell $ and ΣΔ$ using math.sum().
• Info table entries: Rows 9–13 display these values as texts like “↑ USD 1234 (1M)” or “ΣΔ USD −5678 (14)”, with colors reflecting whether buyers or sellers dominate.
• Money flow status: If Δ$ is positive the bar is marked “Money flow in” ; if negative, “Money flow out” ; if zero, “Neutral”. The cumulative status is similarly derived from ΣΔ.Labels print at the bar that changes the sign of ΣΔ, offset using ATR × label multiplier and styled per user preferences.
Figure caption, The chart illustrates a steady rise toward the highest recent pivot (HH1) with price riding between a rising green trend‑line and a red trend‑line drawn through earlier pivot highs. A green Money flow in label appears above the bar near the top of the channel, signaling that net dollar flow turned positive on this bar: buy‑side dollar volume exceeded sell‑side dollar volume, pushing the cumulative sum ΣΔ$ above zero. In the info table, the “Money flow (bar)” and “Money flow Σ” rows both read In, confirming that the indicator’s money‑flow module has detected an inflow at both bar and aggregate levels, while other modules (pivots, trend lines and support/resistance) remain active to provide structural context.
In this example the Money Flow module signals a net outflow. Price has been trending downward: successive high pivots form a falling red trend‑line and the low pivots form a descending green support line. When the latest bar broke below the previous low pivot (LL1), both the bar‑level and cumulative net dollar flow turned negative—selling volume at the close exceeded buying volume and pushed the cumulative Δ$ below zero. The module reacts by printing a red “Money flow out” label beneath the candle; the info table confirms that the “Money flow (bar)” and “Money flow Σ” rows both show Out, indicating sustained dominance of sellers in this period.
10. Info Table
10.1 Purpose
When enabled, the Info Table appears in the lower right of your chart. It summarises key values computed by the indicator—such as buy and sell volume, delta, total volume, breakout status, market phase, and money flow—so you can see at a glance which side is dominant and which signals are active.
10.2 Symbols
• ↑ / ↓ — Up (↑) denotes buy volume or money; down (↓) denotes sell volume or money.
• MA — Moving average. In the table it shows the average value of a series over the lookback period.
• Σ (Sigma) — Cumulative sum over the chosen lookback period.
• Δ (Delta) — Difference between buy and sell values.
• B / S — Buyer and seller share of total volume, expressed as percentages.
• Ref. Price — Reference price for breakout calculations, based on the latest pivot.
• Status — Indicates whether a breakout condition is currently active (True) or has failed.
10.3 Row definitions
1. Up volume / MA up volume – Displays current buy volume on the lower timeframe and its moving average over the lookback period.
2. Down volume / MA down volume – Shows current sell volume and its moving average; sell values are formatted in red for clarity.
3. Δ / ΣΔ – Lists the difference between buy and sell volume for the current bar and the cumulative delta volume over the lookback period.
4. Σ / MA Σ (Vol/MA) – Total volume (buy + sell) for the bar, with the ratio of this volume to its moving average; the right cell shows the average total volume.
5. B/S ratio – Buy and sell share of the total volume: current bar percentages and the average percentages across the lookback period.
6. Buyer Rank / Seller Rank – Ranks the bar’s buy and sell volumes among the last (n) bars; lower rank numbers indicate higher relative volume.
7. Σ Buy / Σ Sell – Sum of buy and sell volumes over the lookback window, indicating which side has traded more.
8. Breakout UP / DOWN – Shows the breakout thresholds (Ref. Price) and whether the breakout condition is active (True) or has failed.
9. Market Phase (Vol) – Reports the current volume‑only phase: Accumulation, Distribution or Neutral.
10. Money Flow – The final rows display dollar amounts and status:
– ↑ USD / Σ↑ USD – Buy dollars for the current bar and the cumulative sum over the money‑flow period.
– ↓ USD / Σ↓ USD – Sell dollars and their cumulative sum.
– Δ USD / ΣΔ USD – Net dollar difference (buy minus sell) for the bar and cumulatively.
– Money flow (bar) – Indicates whether the bar’s net dollar flow is positive (In), negative (Out) or neutral.
– Money flow Σ – Shows whether the cumulative net dollar flow across the chosen period is positive, negative or neutral.
The chart above shows a sequence of different signals from the indicator. A Bull Trap Risk appears after price briefly pushes above resistance but fails to hold, then a green Accum label identifies an accumulation phase. An upward breakout follows, confirmed by a Money flow in print. Later, a Sharp ↓ Risk warns of a possible sharp downturn; after price dips below support but quickly recovers, a Bear Trap label marks a false breakdown. The highlighted info table in the center summarizes key metrics at that moment, including current and average buy/sell volumes, net delta, total volume versus its moving average, breakout status (up and down), market phase (volume), and bar‑level and cumulative money flow (In/Out).
11. Conclusion & Final Remarks
This indicator was developed as a holistic study of market structure and order flow. It brings together several well‑known concepts from technical analysis—breakouts, accumulation and distribution phases, overbought and oversold extremes, bull and bear traps, sharp directional moves, market‑maker spread bars and money flow—into a single Pine Script tool. Each module is based on widely recognized trading ideas and was implemented after consulting reference materials and example strategies, so you can see in real time how these concepts interact on your chart.
A distinctive feature of this indicator is its reliance on per‑side volume: instead of tallying only total volume, it separately measures buy and sell transactions on a lower time frame. This approach gives a clearer view of who is in control—buyers or sellers—and helps filter breakouts, detect phases of accumulation or distribution, recognize potential traps, anticipate sharp moves and gauge whether liquidity providers are active. The money‑flow module extends this analysis by converting volume into currency values and tracking net inflow or outflow across a chosen window.
Although comprehensive, this indicator is intended solely as a guide. It highlights conditions and statistics that many traders find useful, but it does not generate trading signals or guarantee results. Ultimately, you remain responsible for your positions. Use the information presented here to inform your analysis, combine it with other tools and risk‑management techniques, and always make your own decisions when trading.
%ATR + ΔClose HighlightScript Overview
This indicator displays on your chart:
Table of the last N bars that passed the ATR-based range filter:
Columns: Bar #, High, Range (High–Low), Low
Summary row: ATR(N), suggested Stop-Loss (SL = X % of ATR), and the current bar’s range as a percentage of ATR
Red badge on the most recent bar showing ΔClose% (the absolute difference between today’s and yesterday’s close, expressed as % of ATR)
Background highlights:
Blue fill under the most recent bar that met the filter
Yellow fill under bars that failed the filter
Hidden plots of ATR, %ATR, and ΔClose% (for use in strategies or alerts)
All table elements, fills, and plots can be toggled off with a single switch so that only the red ΔClose% badge remains visible.
Inputs
Setting Description Default
Length (bars) Lookback period for ATR and range filter (bars) 5
Upper deviation (%) Upper filter threshold (% of average ATR) 150%
Lower deviation (%) Lower filter threshold (% of average ATR) 50%
SL as % of ATR Stop-loss distance (% of ATR) 10%
Label position Table position relative to bar (“above” or “below”) above
Vertical offset (×ATR) Vertical spacing from the bar in ATR units 2.0
Show table & ATR plots Show or hide table, background highlights, and plots true
How It Works
ATR Calculation & Filtering
Computes average True Range over the last N bars.
Marks bars whose daily range falls within the specified upper/lower deviation band.
Table Construction
Gathers up to N most recent bars that passed the filter (or backfills from the most recent pass).
Formats each bar’s High, Low, and Range into fixed-width columns for neat alignment.
Stop-Loss & Percent Metrics
Calculates a recommended SL distance as a percentage of ATR.
Computes today’s bar range and ΔClose (absolute change in close) as % of ATR.
Chart Display
Table: Shows detailed per-bar data and summary metrics.
Background fills: Blue for the latest valid bar, yellow for invalid bars.
Hidden plots: ATR, %ATR, and ΔClose% (useful for backtesting).
Red badge: Always visible on the right side of the last bar, displaying ΔClose%.
Tips
Disable the table & ATR plots to reduce chart clutter—leave only the red ΔClose% badge for a minimalist volatility alert.
Use the hidden ATR fields (plot outputs) in TradingView Strategies or Alerts to automate volatility-based entries/exits.
Adjust the deviation band to capture “normal” intraday moves vs. outsized volatility spikes.
Load this script on any US market chart (stocks, futures, crypto, etc.) to instantly visualize recent volatility structure, set dynamic SL levels, and highlight today’s price change relative to average true range.
ADR Plots + OverlayADR Plots + Overlay
This tool calculates and displays Average Daily Range (ADR) levels on your chart, giving traders a quick visual reference for expected daily price movement. It plots guide levels above and below the daily open and shows how much of the day's typical range has already been covered—all in one interactive table and on-chart overlay.
What It Does
ADR Calculation:
Uses daily high-low differences over a user-defined period (default 14 days), smoothed via RMA, SMA, EMA, or WMA to calculate the average daily range.
Projected Levels:
Plots four reference levels relative to the current day's open price:
+100% ADR: Open + ADR
+50% ADR: Open + 50% of ADR
−50% ADR: Open − 50% of ADR
−100% ADR: Open − ADR
Coverage %:
Tracks intraday high and low prices to calculate what percentage of the ADR has already been covered for the current session:
Coverage % = (High − Low) ÷ ADR × 100
Interactive Table:
Shows the ADR value and today's ADR coverage percentage in a customizable table overlay. The table position, colors, border, transparency, and an optional empty top row can all be adjusted via settings.
Customization Options
Table Settings:
Position the table (top/bottom × left/right).
Change background color, text color, border color and thickness.
Toggle an empty top row for spacing.
Line Settings:
Choose color, line style (solid/dotted/dashed), and width.
Lines automatically reposition each day based on that day's open price and ADR calculation.
General Inputs:
ADR length (number of days).
Smoothing method (RMA, SMA, EMA, WMA).
How to Use It for Trading
Measure Daily Movement: Instantly know the expected daily price range based on historical volatility.
Identify Overextension: Use the coverage % to see if the market has already moved close to or beyond its typical daily range.
Plan Entries & Exits: Align trade targets and stops with ADR levels for more objective intraday planning.
Visual Reference: Horizontal guide lines and table update automatically as new data comes in, helping traders stay informed without manual calculations.
Ideal For
Intraday traders tracking daily volatility limits.
Swing traders wanting a quick reference for expected price movement per day.
Anyone seeking a volatility-based framework for planning targets, stops, or identifying extended market conditions.
HTF Current/Average RangeThe "HTF(Higher Timeframe) Current/Average Range" indicator calculates and displays the current and average price ranges across multiple timeframes, including daily, weekly, monthly, 4 hour, and user-defined custom timeframes.
Users can customize the lookback period, table size, timeframe, and font color; with the indicator efficiently updating on the final bar to optimize performance.
When the current range surpasses the average range for a given timeframe, the corresponding table cell is highlighted in green, indicating potential maximum price expansion and signaling the possibility of an impending retracement or consolidation.
For day trading strategies, the daily average range can serve as a guide, allowing traders to hold positions until the current daily range approaches or meets the average range, at which point exiting the trade may be considered.
For scalping strategies, the 15min and 5min average range can be utilized to determine optimal holding periods for fast trades.
Other strategies:
Intraday Trading - 1h and 4h Average Range
Swing Trading - Monthly Average Range
Short-term Trading - Weekly Average Range
Also using these statistics in accordance with Power 3 ICT concepts, will assist in holding trades to their statistical average range of the chosen HTF candle.
CODE
The core functionality lies in the data retrieval and table population sections.
The request.security function (e.g., = request.security(syminfo.tickerid, "D", , lookahead = barmerge.lookahead_off)) retrieves high and low prices from specified timeframes without lookahead bias, ensuring accurate historical data.
These values are used to compute current ranges and average ranges (ta.sma(high - low, avgLength)), which are then displayed in a dynamically generated table starting at (if barstate.islast) using table.new, with conditional green highlighting when the current range is greater than average range, providing a clear visual cue for volatility analysis.
Orthogonal Projections to Latent Structures (O-PLS)Version 0.1
Orthogonal Projections to Latent Structures (O-PLS) Indicator for TradingView
This indicator, named "Orthogonal Projections to Latent Structures (O-PLS)", is designed to help traders understand the relevance or predictive power of various market variables on the future close price of the asset it's applied to. Unlike standard correlation coefficients that show a simple linear relationship, O-PLS aims to separate variables into "predictive" (relevant to Y) and "orthogonal" (irrelevant noise) components. This Pine Script indicator provides a simplified proxy of the relevance score derived from O-PLS principles.
Purpose of the Indicator
The primary purpose of this indicator is to identify which technical factors (such as price, volume, and other indicators) have the strongest relationship with the future price movement of the current trading instrument. By providing a "relevance score" for each input variable, it helps traders focus on the most influential data points, potentially leading to more informed trading decisions.
Inputs
The indicator offers the following user-definable inputs:
* **Lookback Period:** This integer input (default: 100, min: 10, max: 500) determines the number of past bars used to calculate the relevance scores for each variable. A longer lookback period considers more historical data, which can lead to smoother, less reactive scores but might miss recent shifts in variable importance.
* **External Asset Symbol:** This symbol input (default: `BINANCE:BTCUSDT`) allows you to specify an external asset (e.g., `BINANCE:ETHUSDT`, `NASDAQ:TSLA`) whose close price will be included in the analysis as an additional variable. This is useful for cross-market analysis to see how other assets influence the current chart.
* **Plot Visibility Checkboxes (e.g., "Plot: Open Price Relevance", "Plot: Volume Relevance", etc.):** These boolean checkboxes allow you to toggle the visibility of individual relevance score plots on the chart, helping to declutter the display and focus on specific variables.
Outputs
The indicator provides two main types of output:
Relevance Score Plots: These are lines plotted in a separate pane below the main price chart. Each line corresponds to a specific market variable (Open Price, Close Price, High Price, Low Price, Volume, various RSIs, SMAs, MFI, and the External Asset Close). The value of each line represents the calculated "relevance score" for that variable, typically scaled between 0 and 10. A higher score indicates a stronger predictive relationship with the future close price.
Sorted Relevance Table : A table displayed in the top-right corner of the chart provides a clear, sorted list of all analyzed variables and their corresponding relevance scores. The table is sorted in descending order of relevance, making it easy to identify the most influential factors at a glance. Each variable name in the table is colored according to its plot color, and the external asset's name is dynamically displayed without the "BINANCE:" prefix.
How to Use the Indicator
1. **Add to Chart:** Apply the "Orthogonal Projections to Latent Structures (O-PLS)" indicator to your desired trading chart (e.g., ETH/USDT).
2. **Adjust Inputs:**
* **Lookback Period:** Experiment with different lookback periods to see how the relevance scores change. A shorter period might highlight recent correlations, while a longer one might show more fundamental relationships.
* **External Asset Symbol:** If you trade BTC/USDT, you might add ETH/USDT or SPX as an external asset to see its influence.
3. **Analyze Relevance Scores:**
* **Plots:** Observe the individual relevance score plots over time. Are certain variables consistently high? Do scores change before significant price moves?
* **Table:** Refer to the sorted table on the latest confirmed bar to quickly identify the top-ranked variables.
4. **Incorporate into Strategy:** Use the insights from the relevance scores to:
* Prioritize certain indicators or price actions in your trading strategy. For example, if "Volume" has a high relevance score, it suggests volume confirmation is critical for future price moves.
* Understand the influence of inter-market relationships (via the External Asset Close).
How the Indicator Works
The indicator works by performing the following steps on each bar:
1. **Data Fetching:** It gathers historical data for various price components (open, high, low, close), volume, and calculated technical indicators (SMA, RSI, MFI) for the specified `lookback` period. It also fetches the close price of an `External Asset Symbol` .
2. **Standardization (Z-scoring):** All collected raw data series are standardized by converting them into Z-scores. This involves subtracting the mean of each series and dividing by its standard deviation . Standardization is crucial because it brings all variables to a common scale, preventing variables with larger absolute values from disproportionately influencing the correlation calculations.
3. **Correlation Calculation (Proxy for O-PLS Relevance):** The indicator then calculates a simplified form of correlation between each standardized input variable and the standardized future close price (Y variable) . This correlation is a proxy for the relevance that O-PLS would identify. A high absolute correlation indicates a strong linear relationship.
4. **Relevance Scaling:** The calculated correlation values are then scaled to a range of 0 to 10 to provide an easily interpretable "relevance score" .
5. **Output Display:** The relevance scores are presented both as time-series plots (allowing observation of changes over time) and in a real-time sorted table (for quick identification of top factors on the current bar) .
How it Differs from Full O-PLS
This indicator provides a *simplified proxy* of O-PLS principles rather than a full, mathematically rigorous O-PLS model. Here's why and how it differs:
* **Dimensionality Reduction:** A full O-PLS model would involve complex matrix factorization techniques to decompose the independent variables (X) into components that are predictive of Y and components that are orthogonal (unrelated) to Y but still describe X's variance. Pine Script's array capabilities and computational limits make direct implementation of these matrix operations challenging.
* **Orthogonal Components:** A true O-PLS model explicitly identifies and removes orthogonal components (noise) from the X data that are unrelated to Y. This indicator, in its simplified form, primarily focuses on the direct correlation (relevance) between each X variable and Y after standardization, without explicitly modeling and separating these orthogonal variations.
* **Predictive Model:** A full O-PLS model is ultimately a predictive model that can be used for regression (predicting Y). This indicator, however, focuses solely on **identifying the relevance/correlation of inputs to Y**, rather than building a predictive model for Y itself. It's more of an analytical tool for feature importance than a direct prediction engine.
* **Computational Intensity:** Full O-PLS involves Singular Value Decomposition (SVD) or Partial Least Squares (PLS) algorithms, which are computationally intensive. The indicator uses simpler statistical measures (mean, standard deviation, and direct correlation calculation over a lookback window) that are feasible within Pine Script's execution limits.
In essence, this Pine Script indicator serves as a practical tool for gaining insights into variable relevance, inspired by the spirit of O-PLS, but adapted for the constraints and common use cases of a TradingView environment.
